Ituano vs Sport Recife Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Ituano v Sport Recife — Team-Based Signals
Ituano vs Sport Recife Head-to-Head — Last 4 Meetings
1-2
HT 0-2
Ituano
BR2
1-1
HT 1-1
Sport Recife
BR2
4-1
HT 2-1
Sport Recife
BR2
1-0
HT 0-0
Ituano
BR2
Ituano 1-0 Sport Recife — Actual Match Statistics
Ituano edged past Sport Recife 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.
Our pre-match lean was Sport Recife at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (60%), no to both teams scoring (55%), and both reads landed as well.
On the day, Ituano had 30% of the ball to Sport Recife's 70%, shots finished 10-21, expected goals 0.58 to 1.28 — on chances, Sport Recife could feel hard done by.
For context: across their last 4 meetings in our records, Ituano had the better of it with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.75 goals for Ituano and 1.00 for Sport Recife.
What was the final score of Ituano vs Sport Recife?
Ituano 1-0 Sport Recife in the Brazil - Serie B on 16/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Ituano vs Sport Recife?
Before kick-off our model rated an Sport Recife win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Ituano 27%, draw 30%, Sport Recife 43%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Sport Recife) went the other way.