Ituano 1-0 Sport Recife — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie B, 16 May 2024

📅16/05/2024 · 🕒01:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
27%
3.69
Draw
30%
3.28
Away
43%
1.89
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
60%
1.67
Over 2.5
40%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.96
No
55%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
33%
2.68
2-3 Goals
40%
1.77
4-5 Goals
19%
4.36
6+ Goals
8%
22.3
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
1/2
9%
1/X
8%
X/1
8%
X/2
15%
X/X
13%
2/1
7%
2/2
19%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
27%
Home Win
24%
+2.9pp
30%
Draw
27%
+2.9pp
43%
Away Win
49%
-5.7pp
60%
Under 2.5
56%
+3.6pp
40%
Over 2.5
44%
-3.6pp
45%
BTTS Yes
47%
-2.3pp
55%
BTTS No
53%
+2.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Ituano EU Bookmakers 27%
Head to Head
AWAY Sport Recife EU Bookmakers 53%
-3% / -3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +13% / +13%
0.84/1.24 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.07/0.58
-14% / -19% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -4% / +72%
46% Ball Possession 54%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
240 · 71% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 339 · 78%
14.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.7
18.4 Crosses 23.4
2.8 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Ituano
2W-1D-1L
AWAY Sport Recife
1.75 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
0.50 xG 1.05
39% Ball Possession 61%
9 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 6
226 Passes 406
68% Pass Accuracy 81%
13 Box Touches 19
18 Crosses 31
2 Yellow Cards 2
26.08.2023 Sport Recife Sport Recife 1-2 HT 0-2 Ituano Ituano BR2
15.05.2023 Ituano Ituano 1-1 HT 1-1 Sport Recife Sport Recife BR2
10.08.2022 Ituano Ituano 4-1 HT 2-1 Sport Recife Sport Recife BR2
27.04.2022 Sport Recife Sport Recife 1-0 HT 0-0 Ituano Ituano BR2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Ituano
1-0
AWAY Sport Recife
0.58 xG 1.28
30% Ball Possession 70%
10 Total Shots 21
2 Shots on Target 4
2 Corners 9
160 Passes 461
71% Pass Accuracy 88%
13 Box Touches 45
10 Crosses 25
6 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Ituano vs Sport Recife
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Ituano edged past Sport Recife 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Sport Recife at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (60%), no to both teams scoring (55%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Ituano had 30% of the ball to Sport Recife's 70%, shots finished 10-21, expected goals 0.58 to 1.28 — on chances, Sport Recife could feel hard done by.

For context: across their last 4 meetings in our records, Ituano had the better of it with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.75 goals for Ituano and 1.00 for Sport Recife.

What was the final score of Ituano vs Sport Recife?

Ituano 1-0 Sport Recife in the Brazil - Serie B on 16/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Ituano vs Sport Recife?

Before kick-off our model rated an Sport Recife win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Ituano 27%, draw 30%, Sport Recife 43%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Sport Recife) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Sport Recife) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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