Ponte Preta 1-2 Santos — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie B, 16 May 2024

Ponte Preta
1-2 HT 0-2
Santos
📅16/05/2024 · 🕒03:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✗ 2nd Score 0-0 ✗
Brazil - Serie B – 2024

Ponte Preta vs Santos Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
26%
3.87
Draw
31%
3.11
Away
43%
1.91
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
70%
1.51
Over 2.5
30%
2.43
Both Teams to Score
Yes
37%
2.16
No
63%
1.61
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
40%
2.25
2-3 Goals
42%
1.79
4-5 Goals
12%
5.47
6+ Goals
6%
34.5
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.25 — our 40% vs market 37.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
1/2
4%
1/X
9%
X/1
9%
X/2
18%
X/X
19%
2/1
5%
2/2
21%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
26%
Home Win
23%
+3.2pp
32%
Draw
29%
+2.7pp
43%
Away Win
48%
-6.0pp
70%
Under 2.5
62%
+7.3pp
30%
Over 2.5
38%
-7.3pp
37%
BTTS Yes
42%
-5.0pp
63%
BTTS No
58%
+5.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Ponte Preta v Santos — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Ponte Preta EU Bookmakers 26%
Head to Head
AWAY Santos EU Bookmakers 52%
-6% / -6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +34% / +34%
0.47/1.15 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.34/1.15
-31% / -29% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +86% / –
45% Ball Possession 55%
10 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
311 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 369 · 80%
10.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.0
15.9 Crosses 20.0
2.4 Yellow Cards 1.0

Ponte Preta vs Santos Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Ponte Preta
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Santos
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.48 xG 0.59
39% Ball Possession 61%
12 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 8
255 Passes 425
76% Pass Accuracy 85%
11 Box Touches 20
14 Crosses 25
3 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
17.04.2021 Ponte Preta Ponte Preta 3-0 HT 3-0 Santos Santos BREPAU
31.07.2020 Santos Santos 1-3 HT 1-0 Ponte Preta Ponte Preta BREPAU
26.01.2018 Ponte Preta Ponte Preta 1-2 HT 1-0 Santos Santos BREPAU
12.10.2017 Ponte Preta Ponte Preta 1-1 HT 1-1 Santos Santos BR1
18.06.2017 Santos Santos 0-0 HT 0-0 Ponte Preta Ponte Preta BR1
11.04.2017 Santos Santos 1-0 HT 1-0 Ponte Preta Ponte Preta BREPAU

Ponte Preta 1-2 Santos — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Ponte Preta
1-2
AWAY Santos
1.13 xG 1.15
49% Ball Possession 51%
11 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 6
391 Passes 402
84% Pass Accuracy 82%
14 Box Touches 16
24 Crosses 19
POST-MATCH Ponte Preta vs Santos
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Santos nicked a narrow win over Ponte Preta 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-2.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Santos as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (70%), no to both teams scoring (63%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Ponte Preta had 49% of the ball to Santos's 51%, shots finished 11-10, expected goals 1.13 to 1.15.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Ponte Preta and 0.83 for Santos.

What was the final score of Ponte Preta vs Santos?

Ponte Preta 1-2 Santos in the Brazil - Serie B on 16/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Ponte Preta vs Santos?

Before kick-off our model rated an Santos win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Ponte Preta 26%, draw 32%, Santos 43%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Santos) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Santos) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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