Chelsea 1-0 Manchester United — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Premier League, 16 May 2025

Chelsea
1-0 HT 0-0
Manchester United
📅16/05/2025 · 🕒22:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 2-2 ✗
England - Premier League – 2024/2025

Chelsea vs Manchester United Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
54%
1.57
Draw
23%
4.08
Away
23%
4.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
41%
2.33
Over 2.5
59%
1.54
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.63
No
47%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
4.69
2-3 Goals
39%
1.93
4-5 Goals
24%
2.77
6+ Goals
16%
7.41
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
31%
1.96
1/2
7%
35.0
1/X EV+ ✗
10%
14.85
X/1
17%
4.31
X/2
9%
11.1
X/X
6%
6.51
2/1
6%
20.05
2/2
7%
8.23
2/X
7%
16.5
Value flag · 1/X at 14.85 — our 10% vs market 4.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
54%
Home Win
60%
-5.5pp
23%
Draw
21%
+1.7pp
23%
Away Win
19%
+3.8pp
41%
Under 2.5
39%
+2.2pp
59%
Over 2.5
61%
-2.2pp
53%
BTTS Yes
57%
-4.3pp
47%
BTTS No
43%
+4.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Chelsea v Manchester United — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Chelsea EU Bookmakers 64%
Head to Head
AWAY Manchester United EU Bookmakers 22%
-4% / +3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -9% / -24%
2.04/1.06 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.28/1.90
-6% / +1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -8% / -18%
59% Ball Possession 41%
14 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
487 · 85% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 295 · 76%
32.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 24.5
19.6 Crosses 15.2
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.3

Chelsea vs Manchester United Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Chelsea
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Manchester United
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
1.76 xG 2.37
56% Ball Possession 44%
16 Total Shots 16
5 Shots on Target 6
7 Corners 5
457 Passes 334
86% Pass Accuracy 81%
32 Box Touches 29
17 Crosses 13
1 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
03.11.2024 Manchester United Manchester United 1-1 HT 0-0 Chelsea Chelsea İNP
04.04.2024 Chelsea Chelsea 4-3 HT 2-2 Manchester United Manchester United İNP
06.12.2023 Manchester United Manchester United 2-1 HT 1-1 Chelsea Chelsea İNP
25.05.2023 Manchester United Manchester United 4-1 HT 2-0 Chelsea Chelsea İNP
22.10.2022 Chelsea Chelsea 1-1 HT 0-0 Manchester United Manchester United İNP
28.04.2022 Manchester United Manchester United 1-1 HT 0-0 Chelsea Chelsea İNP

Chelsea 1-0 Manchester United — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Chelsea
1-0
AWAY Manchester United
0.82 xG 0.29
47% Ball Possession 53%
11 Total Shots 4
3 Shots on Target 1
7 Corners 2
325 Passes 381
81% Pass Accuracy 81%
16 Box Touches 14
13 Crosses 9
1 Yellow Cards 6
POST-MATCH Chelsea vs Manchester United
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Chelsea edged past Manchester United 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Chelsea as the likeliest winner at 54%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (59%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Chelsea had 47% of the ball to Manchester United's 53%, shots finished 11-4, expected goals 0.82 to 0.29.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Manchester United led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Chelsea and 2.00 for Manchester United.

What was the final score of Chelsea vs Manchester United?

Chelsea 1-0 Manchester United in the England - Premier League on 16/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Chelsea vs Manchester United?

Before kick-off our model rated a Chelsea win the most likely single outcome at about 54%, with the full match-result split Chelsea 54%, draw 23%, Manchester United 23%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Chelsea) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Chelsea) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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İNP More England - Premier League
16 May 2025
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