Istra 1961 3-0 Sibenik — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Croatia - 1. HNL, 16 May 2025

📅16/05/2025 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
1.75
Draw
31%
3.54
Away
28%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.75
Over 2.5
44%
1.97
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.95
No
53%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
32%
2-3 Goals
38%
4-5 Goals
22%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
1/2
7%
1/X
6%
X/1
14%
X/2
8%
X/X
15%
2/1
8%
2/2
13%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
54%
-12.5pp
31%
Draw
26%
+5.1pp
28%
Away Win
21%
+7.6pp
56%
Under 2.5
53%
+3.2pp
44%
Over 2.5
47%
-3.2pp
47%
BTTS Yes
47%
-0.7pp
53%
BTTS No
53%
+0.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Istra 1961 EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Sibenik EU Bookmakers 23%
-9% / -8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +10% / +13%
1.56/0.99 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.91/1.20
+13% / -42% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -13% / +49%
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
336 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 267 · 73%
26.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.4
16.3 Crosses 16.1
2.7 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Istra 1961
1W-4D-1L
AWAY Sibenik
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
0.90 xG 0.92
52% Ball Possession 48%
7 Total Shots 10
2 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 3
334 Passes 285
77% Pass Accuracy 74%
15 Box Touches 16
15 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 2
15.03.2025 Sibenik Sibenik 1-0 HT 1-0 Istra 1961 Istra 1961 HIR
14.12.2024 Istra 1961 Istra 1961 3-3 HT 1-2 Sibenik Sibenik HIR
27.09.2024 Sibenik Sibenik 0-0 HT 0-0 Istra 1961 Istra 1961 HIR
29.04.2023 Istra 1961 Istra 1961 3-0 HT 1-0 Sibenik Sibenik HIR
24.02.2023 Sibenik Sibenik 0-0 HT 0-0 Istra 1961 Istra 1961 HIR
23.10.2022 Istra 1961 Istra 1961 0-0 HT 0-0 Sibenik Sibenik HIR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Istra 1961
3-0
AWAY Sibenik
0.53 xG 0.45
50% Ball Possession 50%
9 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 2
2 Corners 1
351 Passes 343
82% Pass Accuracy 82%
20 Box Touches 18
16 Crosses 14
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Istra 1961 vs Sibenik
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Istra 1961 ran out comfortable winners over Sibenik 3-0. Half-time: 2-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Istra 1961 as the likeliest winner at 41%, and the 3-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Istra 1961 had 50% of the ball to Sibenik's 50%, shots finished 9-9, expected goals 0.53 to 0.45.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Istra 1961 and 0.67 for Sibenik.

What was the final score of Istra 1961 vs Sibenik?

Istra 1961 3-0 Sibenik in the Croatia - 1. HNL on 16/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Istra 1961 vs Sibenik?

Before kick-off our model rated a Istra 1961 win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Istra 1961 41%, draw 31%, Sibenik 28%. The final score 3-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Istra 1961), BTTS No — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Istra 1961) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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