Independiente Medellin vs Deportes Tolima Prediction — Model Probabilities
Independiente Medellin v Deportes Tolima — Team-Based Signals
Independiente Medellin vs Deportes Tolima Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
Independiente Medellin 0-1 Deportes Tolima — Actual Match Statistics
Deportes Tolima edged past Independiente Medellin 1-0 on the road. Level at 0-0 at half-time, the winner was decided in the second half.
Our pre-match lean was Independiente Medellin at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (63%), no to both teams scoring (56%) came in.
The match data tells the story: Independiente Medellin had 70% of the ball to Deportes Tolima's 30%, shots finished 26-4, expected goals 1.45 to 0.26 — the balance of chances actually favoured Independiente Medellin.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Deportes Tolima led the recent series with 2 wins, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Independiente Medellin and 1.00 for Deportes Tolima.
Independiente Medellin vs Deportes Tolima Result & Final Score
Independiente Medellin 0 - 1 Deportes Tolima in the Colombia - Primera on 16/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
Independiente Medellin vs Deportes Tolima Prediction vs Result
Before kick-off our model rated a Independiente Medellin win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Independiente Medellin 43%, draw 33%, Deportes Tolima 24%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Independiente Medellin) went the other way.