Independiente Medellin 0-1 Deportes Tolima — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Colombia - Primera, 22 Sep 2024

📅22/09/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
28%
3.32
Draw
32%
3.04
Away
40%
2.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
64%
1.54
Over 2.5
36%
2.33
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
2.03
No
54%
1.7
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
34%
2-3 Goals
43%
4-5 Goals
16%
6+ Goals
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
1/2
8%
1/X
11%
X/1
9%
X/2
13%
X/X
12%
2/1
7%
2/2
19%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
28%
Home Win
27%
+0.9pp
32%
Draw
30%
+2.6pp
40%
Away Win
44%
-3.5pp
64%
Under 2.5
61%
+2.6pp
36%
Over 2.5
39%
-2.6pp
46%
BTTS Yes
45%
+0.5pp
54%
BTTS No
55%
-0.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Independiente Medellin EU Bookmakers 30%
Head to Head
AWAY Deportes Tolima EU Bookmakers 48%
+10% / +9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / +10%
1.26/0.98 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.28/1.07
+7% / +58% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +17% / +67%
47% Ball Possession 53%
13 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
250 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 333 · 80%
16.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.6
16.4 Crosses 12.9
3.0 Yellow Cards 2.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Independiente Medellin
1W-4D-1L
AWAY Deportes Tolima
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
0.67 xG 1.07
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
311 Passes 302
78% Pass Accuracy 80%
16 Box Touches 21
16 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 2
10.03.2024 Deportes Tolima Deportes Tolima 2-2 HT 1-1 Independiente Medellin Independiente Medellin KOL
06.03.2024 Deportes Tolima Deportes Tolima 0-0 HT 0-0 Independiente Medellin Independiente Medellin CON CSA
15.09.2023 Deportes Tolima Deportes Tolima 1-1 HT 0-1 Independiente Medellin Independiente Medellin KOL
02.04.2023 Independiente Medellin Independiente Medellin 1-1 HT 1-1 Deportes Tolima Deportes Tolima KOL
18.08.2022 Independiente Medellin Independiente Medellin 0-1 HT 0-0 Deportes Tolima Deportes Tolima KOLK
28.07.2022 Deportes Tolima Deportes Tolima 1-3 HT 1-3 Independiente Medellin Independiente Medellin KOLK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Independiente Medellin
0-1
AWAY Deportes Tolima
0.31 xG 0.55
46% Ball Possession 54%
9 Total Shots 10
2 Shots on Target 1
2 Corners 5
248 Passes 346
76% Pass Accuracy 85%
16 Box Touches 6
9 Crosses 18
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Independiente Medellin vs Deportes Tolima
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Deportes Tolima edged past Independiente Medellin 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 28% / 32% / 40% — and on the day Deportes Tolima made the difference. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (64%) came in.

On the day, Independiente Medellin had 46% of the ball to Deportes Tolima's 54%, shots finished 9-10, expected goals 0.31 to 0.55.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Independiente Medellin and 1.00 for Deportes Tolima.

What was the final score of Independiente Medellin vs Deportes Tolima?

Independiente Medellin 0-1 Deportes Tolima in the Colombia - Primera on 22/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Independiente Medellin vs Deportes Tolima?

Before kick-off our model rated an Deportes Tolima win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Independiente Medellin 28%, draw 32%, Deportes Tolima 40%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Deportes Tolima), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Deportes Tolima) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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