Mainz 05 II 0-4 Freiburg II — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Regional League, 16 May 2026

📅16/05/2026 · 🕒15:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
2.12
Draw
12%
3.8
Away
45%
2.62
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
24%
Over 2.5
76%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
69%
1.28
No
31%
3.34
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
14%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
29%
6+ Goals
17%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
1/2
14%
1/X
4%
X/1
25%
X/2
11%
X/X
3%
2/1
7%
2/2
20%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
43%
+0.2pp
12%
Draw
23%
-10.7pp
45%
Away Win
34%
+10.7pp
69%
BTTS Yes
74%
-4.9pp
31%
BTTS No
26%
+4.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Mainz 05 II EU Bookmakers 47%
Head to Head
AWAY Freiburg II EU Bookmakers 38%
-8% / -12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +9% / +6%
1.48/1.18 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.90/1.49
-13% / +11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +22% / -2%
50% Ball Possession 50%
14 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 4
311 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 355 · 83%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.1 Yellow Cards 1.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Mainz 05 II
1W-0D-4L
AWAY Freiburg II
1.40 Avg Goals (FT) 2.80
46% Ball Possession 54%
11 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 5
1 Corners 1
3 Yellow Cards 2
16.11.2025 Freiburg II Freiburg II 2-1 HT 1-0 Mainz 05 II Mainz 05 II ALMBÖL
16.11.2024 Mainz 05 II Mainz 05 II 0-1 HT 0-0 Freiburg II Freiburg II ALMBÖL
28.02.2021 Freiburg II Freiburg II 3-1 HT 1-1 Mainz 05 II Mainz 05 II ALMBÖL
19.09.2020 Mainz 05 II Mainz 05 II 2-6 HT 0-4 Freiburg II Freiburg II ALMBÖL
29.09.2019 Mainz 05 II Mainz 05 II 3-2 HT 1-1 Freiburg II Freiburg II ALMBÖL
POST-MATCH Mainz 05 II vs Freiburg II
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Freiburg II swept aside Mainz 05 II 4-0 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match split (43% / 12% / 45%) promised a tight game; Freiburg II found the edge the numbers couldn't. On goals, over 2.5 goals (76%) landed while both teams to score (69%) missed.

Coming into the game, across their last 5 meetings in our records, Freiburg II led the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.40 goals for Mainz 05 II and 2.80 for Freiburg II.

What was the final score of Mainz 05 II vs Freiburg II?

Mainz 05 II 0-4 Freiburg II in the Germany - Regional League on 16/05/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Mainz 05 II vs Freiburg II?

Before kick-off our model rated an Freiburg II win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Mainz 05 II 43%, draw 12%, Freiburg II 45%. The final score 0-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Freiburg II), Over 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Freiburg II) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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