Mainz 05 II 0-1 Freiburg II — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Regional League, 16 Nov 2024

📅16/11/2024 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
30%
2.8
Draw
31%
3.54
Away
39%
2.16
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.15
Over 2.5
51%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
58%
1.56
No
42%
2.27
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
2-3 Goals
44%
4-5 Goals
22%
6+ Goals
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
1/2
6%
1/X
9%
X/1
8%
X/2
15%
X/X
9%
2/1
7%
2/2
19%
2/X
13%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
30%
Home Win
32%
-2.8pp
31%
Draw
25%
+6.0pp
39%
Away Win
43%
-3.1pp
49%
Under 2.5
43%
+6.6pp
51%
Over 2.5
57%
-6.6pp
58%
BTTS Yes
60%
-2.2pp
42%
BTTS No
40%
+2.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Mainz 05 II EU Bookmakers 36%
Head to Head
AWAY Freiburg II EU Bookmakers 46%
+0% / -16% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +10% / +9%
1.25/1.70 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.51/1.26
-9% / -7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +46% / +1%
50% Ball Possession 50%
11 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
296 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 402 · 83%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
3.0 Yellow Cards 2.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Mainz 05 II
1W-0D-2L
AWAY Freiburg II
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 3.67
46% Ball Possession 54%
11 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 5
1 Corners 1
3 Yellow Cards 2
28.02.2021 Freiburg II Freiburg II 3-1 HT 1-1 Mainz 05 II Mainz 05 II ALMBÖL
19.09.2020 Mainz 05 II Mainz 05 II 2-6 HT 0-4 Freiburg II Freiburg II ALMBÖL
29.09.2019 Mainz 05 II Mainz 05 II 3-2 HT 1-1 Freiburg II Freiburg II ALMBÖL
POST-MATCH Mainz 05 II vs Freiburg II
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Freiburg II edged past Mainz 05 II 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (30% / 31% / 39%) promised a tight game; Freiburg II found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — both teams to score (58%) — went the other way, though.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, Freiburg II led the recent series with 2 wins. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Mainz 05 II and 3.67 for Freiburg II.

What was the final score of Mainz 05 II vs Freiburg II?

Mainz 05 II 0-1 Freiburg II in the Germany - Regional League on 16/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Mainz 05 II vs Freiburg II?

Before kick-off our model rated an Freiburg II win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Mainz 05 II 30%, draw 31%, Freiburg II 39%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Freiburg II) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Freiburg II) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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