Fasil Ketema 3-1 Adama City — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Etiyopya - Premier League, 16 May 2026

📅16/05/2026 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
2.53
Draw
33%
2.66
Away
31%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
66%
Over 2.5
34%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
40%
2.27
No
60%
1.56
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
42%
2-3 Goals
37%
4-5 Goals
14%
6+ Goals
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
1/2
6%
1/X
10%
X/1
14%
X/2
6%
X/X
14%
2/1
6%
2/2
19%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
36%
Home Win
36%
+0.1pp
32%
Draw
34%
-1.7pp
31%
Away Win
30%
+1.6pp
40%
BTTS Yes
40%
+0.3pp
60%
BTTS No
60%
-0.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Fasil Ketema EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Adama City EU Bookmakers 33%
-9% / -9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +6%
0.78/1.19 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.16/1.14
-22% / -26% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +26% / -17%
47% Ball Possession 53%
8 Total Shots 8
3 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 5
284 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 290 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.7 Yellow Cards 1.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Fasil Ketema
0W-4D-0L
AWAY Adama City
0.75 Avg Goals (FT) 0.75
52% Ball Possession 48%
6 Total Shots 5
2 Shots on Target 2
3 Corners 2
0 Yellow Cards 2
03.01.2026 Adama City Adama City 0-0 HT 0-0 Fasil Ketema Fasil Ketema ETH
15.06.2025 Fasil Ketema Fasil Ketema 2-2 HT 0-2 Adama City Adama City ETH
21.10.2024 Adama City Adama City 1-1 Fasil Ketema Fasil Ketema ETH
19.04.2024 Fasil Ketema Fasil Ketema 0-0 HT 0-0 Adama City Adama City ETH
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Fasil Ketema
3-1
AWAY Adama City
42% Ball Possession 58%
9 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 3
4 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Fasil Ketema vs Adama City
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Fasil Ketema got the better of Adama City 3-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 36% / 32% / 31% — and on the day Fasil Ketema made the difference. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (66%), no to both teams scoring (60%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Fasil Ketema had 42% of the ball to Adama City's 58%, shots finished 9-9.

For context: across their last 4 meetings in our records, honours were even at 0 apiece, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 0.75 goals for Fasil Ketema and 0.75 for Adama City.

What was the final score of Fasil Ketema vs Adama City?

Fasil Ketema 3-1 Adama City in the Etiyopya - Premier League on 16/05/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Fasil Ketema vs Adama City?

Before kick-off our model rated a Fasil Ketema win the most likely single outcome at about 36%, with the full match-result split Fasil Ketema 36%, draw 32%, Adama City 31%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Fasil Ketema) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Fasil Ketema) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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