Rosenborg 2-3 Aalesund — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Norway - Eliteserien, 16 May 2026

Rosenborg
2-3 HT 1-1
Aalesund
📅16/05/2026 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 3-1 ✗
Norway - Eliteserien – 2026

Rosenborg vs Aalesund Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
62%
1.61
Draw
18%
3.94
Away
20%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
39%
2.29
Over 2.5
61%
1.56
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.61
No
45%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
4.43
2-3 Goals
36%
1.86
4-5 Goals
29%
2.77
6+ Goals
13%
7.72
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
35%
2.03
1/2
4%
34.0
1/X
4%
14.1
X/1
15%
4.3
X/2
7%
10.0
X/X
6%
6.12
2/1 EV+ ✗
12%
19.95
2/2
10%
7.36
2/X
7%
15.55
Value flag · 2/1 at 19.95 — our 12% vs market 2.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
62%
Home Win
58%
+4.1pp
18%
Draw
22%
-4.4pp
20%
Away Win
20%
+0.3pp
39%
Under 2.5
40%
-0.4pp
61%
Over 2.5
60%
+0.4pp
55%
BTTS Yes
58%
-3.0pp
45%
BTTS No
42%
+3.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Rosenborg v Aalesund — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Rosenborg EU Bookmakers 62%
Head to Head
AWAY Aalesund EU Bookmakers 23%
+1% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -2%
1.87/0.89 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.14/1.64
+2% / +27% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +5% / -10%
55% Ball Possession 45%
17 Total Shots 10
7 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
370 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 290 · 76%
33.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.6
21.2 Crosses 13.9
1.3 Yellow Cards 2.0

Rosenborg vs Aalesund Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Rosenborg
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Aalesund
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
1.78 xG 0.87
53% Ball Possession 47%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
376 Passes 322
80% Pass Accuracy 76%
32 Box Touches 22
27 Crosses 17
0 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
09.02.2024 Rosenborg Rosenborg 2-1 HT 0-1 Aalesund Aalesund HAZ
27.08.2023 Rosenborg Rosenborg 4-0 HT 2-0 Aalesund Aalesund NOR
02.07.2023 Aalesund Aalesund 1-0 HT 0-0 Rosenborg Rosenborg NOR
21.08.2022 Rosenborg Rosenborg 2-1 HT 1-1 Aalesund Aalesund NOR
17.07.2022 Aalesund Aalesund 0-0 HT 0-0 Rosenborg Rosenborg NOR
13.06.2022 Rosenborg Rosenborg 2-0 HT 1-0 Aalesund Aalesund HAZ

Rosenborg 2-3 Aalesund — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Rosenborg
2-3
AWAY Aalesund
1.23 xG 1.13
67% Ball Possession 33%
13 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 4
11 Corners 0
426 Passes 172
82% Pass Accuracy 66%
34 Box Touches 15
27 Crosses 9
2 Yellow Cards 6
POST-MATCH Rosenborg vs Aalesund
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Aalesund nicked a narrow win over Rosenborg 3-2 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

This one beat our numbers. Rosenborg carried 62% before kick-off and it didn't land — a reminder that even strong leads lose regularly. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (61%), both teams to score (55%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Rosenborg had 67% of the ball to Aalesund's 33%, shots finished 13-9, expected goals 1.23 to 1.13.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Rosenborg had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Rosenborg and 0.50 for Aalesund.

What was the final score of Rosenborg vs Aalesund?

Rosenborg 2-3 Aalesund in the Norway - Eliteserien on 16/05/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Rosenborg vs Aalesund?

Before kick-off our model rated a Rosenborg win the most likely single outcome at about 62%, with the full match-result split Rosenborg 62%, draw 18%, Aalesund 20%. The final score 2-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Rosenborg) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Rosenborg) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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