Heidelberg United 1-0 South Melbourne — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Australia - National Premier League, 16 Jun 2024

📅16/06/2024 · 🕒09:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
2.53
Draw
25%
3.28
Away
39%
2.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.97
Over 2.5
48%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.61
No
49%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
2-3 Goals
43%
4-5 Goals
21%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
1/2
8%
1/X
5%
X/1
12%
X/2
15%
X/X
11%
2/1
5%
2/2
16%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
36%
+0.5pp
25%
Draw
27%
-2.4pp
39%
Away Win
37%
+1.8pp
52%
Under 2.5
47%
+5.0pp
48%
Over 2.5
53%
-5.0pp
51%
BTTS Yes
58%
-7.0pp
49%
BTTS No
42%
+7.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Heidelberg United EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY South Melbourne EU Bookmakers 40%
+3% / +6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +17% / +17%
1.29/1.62 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 3.39/3.09
-7% / +12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +30% / +50%
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
315 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 367 · 81%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
17.6 Crosses 18.1
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Heidelberg United
3W-2D-1L
AWAY South Melbourne
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
54% Ball Possession 46%
18 Total Shots 12
7 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 7
206 Passes 196
64% Pass Accuracy 62%
22 Crosses 15
3 Yellow Cards 3
08.03.2024 South Melbourne South Melbourne 1-1 HT 1-1 Heidelberg United Heidelberg United AVNPL
16.08.2023 Heidelberg United Heidelberg United 2-1 HT 0-1 South Melbourne South Melbourne AVNPL
17.03.2023 South Melbourne South Melbourne 0-2 HT 0-1 Heidelberg United Heidelberg United AVNPL
22.05.2022 Heidelberg United Heidelberg United 2-1 HT 1-1 South Melbourne South Melbourne AVNPL
28.02.2021 Heidelberg United Heidelberg United 0-1 HT 0-0 South Melbourne South Melbourne AVNPL
29.03.2015 Heidelberg United Heidelberg United 1-1 HT 0-1 South Melbourne South Melbourne AVNPL
POST-MATCH Heidelberg United vs South Melbourne
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Heidelberg United edged past South Melbourne 1-0.

We called this one close before kick-off — 37% / 25% / 39% — and on the day Heidelberg United made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Heidelberg United had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Heidelberg United and 0.83 for South Melbourne.

What was the final score of Heidelberg United vs South Melbourne?

Heidelberg United 1-0 South Melbourne in the Australia - National Premier League on 16/06/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Heidelberg United vs South Melbourne?

Before kick-off our model rated an South Melbourne win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Heidelberg United 37%, draw 25%, South Melbourne 39%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (South Melbourne), BTTS Yes went the other way.

✗ Match Result (South Melbourne) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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