Derry City 1-2 CSKA Sofia — Result, Statistics & Match Review — UEFA Europa League, 16 Jul 2026

📅16/07/2026 · 🕒20:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 1-3
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
26%
3.08
Draw
23%
3.54
Away
51%
1.98
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
2.23
Over 2.5
53%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.53
No
44%
2.33
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
4.28
2-3 Goals
37%
1.83
4-5 Goals
25%
2.74
6+ Goals
9%
7.68
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
1/2
5%
1/X
6%
X/1
8%
X/2
22%
X/X
11%
2/1
5%
2/2
24%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
26%
Home Win
29%
-2.9pp
23%
Draw
25%
-1.5pp
51%
Away Win
46%
+4.5pp
47%
Under 2.5
41%
+6.0pp
53%
Over 2.5
59%
-6.0pp
56%
BTTS Yes
61%
-5.7pp
44%
BTTS No
39%
+5.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Derry City EU Bookmakers 32%
Head to Head
AWAY CSKA Sofia EU Bookmakers 50%
-49% / -49% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -13% / -13%
0.00/1.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.34/0.89
-100% / +36% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -16% / +24%
49% Ball Possession 51%
11 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
298 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 348 · 81%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Derry City
0W-1D-2L
AWAY CSKA Sofia
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
7 Total Shots 17
4 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 6
1 Yellow Cards 0
09.07.2026 CSKA Sofia CSKA Sofia 3-2 HT 2-1 Derry City Derry City AVL
06.08.2009 Derry City Derry City 1-1 HT 0-0 CSKA Sofia CSKA Sofia AVL
30.07.2009 CSKA Sofia CSKA Sofia 1-0 HT 0-0 Derry City Derry City AVL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Derry City
1-2
AWAY CSKA Sofia
7 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 6
10 Corners 6
1 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Derry City vs CSKA Sofia
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

CSKA Sofia edged past Derry City 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had CSKA Sofia as the likeliest winner at 51%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — both teams to score (56%) came in.

On the day, shots finished 7-11.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, CSKA Sofia led the recent series with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Derry City and 1.67 for CSKA Sofia.

What was the final score of Derry City vs CSKA Sofia?

Derry City 1-2 CSKA Sofia in the UEFA Europa League on 16/07/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Derry City vs CSKA Sofia?

Before kick-off our model rated an CSKA Sofia win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Derry City 26%, draw 23%, CSKA Sofia 51%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (CSKA Sofia), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (CSKA Sofia) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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