Lexington 1-4 New Mexico United — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USL Championship, 16 Jul 2026

📅16/07/2026 · 🕒02:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
55%
1.57
Draw
23%
3.8
Away
22%
4.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
2.07
Over 2.5
53%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.75
No
47%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
3.69
2-3 Goals
38%
1.77
4-5 Goals
24%
2.98
6+ Goals
11%
9.7
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
34%
1/2
6%
1/X
8%
X/1
15%
X/2
8%
X/X
10%
2/1
6%
2/2
8%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
55%
Home Win
59%
-3.4pp
23%
Draw
22%
+0.4pp
22%
Away Win
19%
+3.0pp
47%
Under 2.5
44%
+2.8pp
53%
Over 2.5
56%
-2.8pp
53%
BTTS Yes
53%
+0.0pp
47%
BTTS No
47%
+0.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lexington EU Bookmakers 64%
Head to Head
AWAY New Mexico United EU Bookmakers 22%
+15% / +15% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / +8%
2.02/0.67 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.08/1.69
+13% / +150% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -15% / +8%
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
340 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 296 · 77%
23.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.2
10.8 Crosses 13.1
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lexington
1W-0D-1L
AWAY New Mexico United
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.57 xG 1.02
34% Ball Possession 66%
12 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 4
240 Passes 542
81% Pass Accuracy 90%
18 Box Touches 18
11 Crosses 8
2 Yellow Cards 2
29.09.2025 New Mexico United New Mexico United 2-1 HT 2-0 Lexington Lexington USLP
15.06.2025 Lexington Lexington 2-1 HT 0-1 New Mexico United New Mexico United USLP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lexington
1-4
AWAY New Mexico United
1.19 xG 2.17
11 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 1
260 Passes 414
26 Box Touches 10
11 Crosses 3
4 Yellow Cards 2
FAQ Lexington vs New Mexico United
Match summary & frequently asked questions

New Mexico United ran out comfortable winners over Lexington 4-1 away from home in the USL Championship on 16 Jul 2026. Half-time: 0-2. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, shots finished 11-12, expected goals 1.19 to 2.17.

Across their last 2 meetings in our records, honours are even at 1 apiece. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Lexington and 1.50 for New Mexico United.

What was the final score of Lexington vs New Mexico United?

Lexington 1-4 New Mexico United in the USL Championship on 16/07/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lexington vs New Mexico United?

Before kick-off our model rated a Lexington win the most likely single outcome at about 55%, with the full match-result split Lexington 55%, draw 23%, New Mexico United 22%. The final score 1-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Lexington) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Lexington) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
USLP More USL Championship
16 Jul 2026
02:00 Miami FC vs Indy Eleven Analysis →
02:30 Sporting JAX vs Pittsburgh Riverhounds Analysis →