New Mexico United 2-1 Lexington — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USL Championship, 29 Sep 2025

📅29/09/2025 · 🕒02:47 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
2.02
Draw
25%
3.45
Away
32%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.9
Over 2.5
48%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.73
No
46%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
30%
2-3 Goals
38%
4-5 Goals
23%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
1/2
7%
1/X
9%
X/1
17%
X/2
16%
X/X
8%
2/1
6%
2/2
9%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
46%
-2.6pp
25%
Draw
26%
-0.2pp
32%
Away Win
29%
+3.0pp
52%
Under 2.5
49%
+2.7pp
48%
Over 2.5
51%
-2.7pp
54%
BTTS Yes
54%
+0.0pp
46%
BTTS No
46%
-0.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME New Mexico United EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Lexington EU Bookmakers 32%
+0% / +3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +6%
1.38/1.12 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.07/1.51
+3% / +16% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -12% / +24%
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
334 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 336 · 79%
21.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.3
15.2 Crosses 17.6
2.8 Yellow Cards 3.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME New Mexico United
0W-0D-1L
AWAY Lexington
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
1.02 xG 1.57
69% Ball Possession 31%
12 Total Shots 16
5 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 4
589 Passes 210
91% Pass Accuracy 77%
21 Box Touches 22
10 Crosses 17
3 Yellow Cards 4
15.06.2025 Lexington Lexington 2-1 HT 0-1 New Mexico United New Mexico United USLP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME New Mexico United
2-1
AWAY Lexington
63% Ball Possession 37%
4 Total Shots 8
2 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 2
496 Passes 270
89% Pass Accuracy 85%
16 Box Touches 13
7 Crosses 5
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH New Mexico United vs Lexington
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

New Mexico United edged past Lexington 2-1. Half-time: 2-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had New Mexico United as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, New Mexico United had 63% of the ball to Lexington's 37%, shots finished 4-8.

What was the final score of New Mexico United vs Lexington?

New Mexico United 2-1 Lexington in the USL Championship on 29/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for New Mexico United vs Lexington?

Before kick-off our model rated a New Mexico United win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split New Mexico United 43%, draw 25%, Lexington 32%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (New Mexico United), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (New Mexico United) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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