Pittsburgh Riverhounds 1-0 Las Vegas Lights — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USL Championship, 29 Sep 2025

📅29/09/2025 · 🕒01:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
61%
1.45
Draw
24%
4.08
Away
15%
5.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
1.78
Over 2.5
54%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
57%
2.16
No
43%
1.61
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
2.84
2-3 Goals
42%
1.72
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
26%
3.69
6+ Goals
10%
16.2
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.69 — our 26% vs market 20.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
35%
1/2
3%
1/X
9%
X/1
12%
X/2
5%
X/X
11%
2/1
14%
2/2
7%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
61%
Home Win
65%
-3.8pp
24%
Draw
21%
+2.5pp
16%
Away Win
14%
+1.4pp
46%
Under 2.5
52%
-6.3pp
54%
Over 2.5
48%
+6.3pp
57%
BTTS Yes
42%
+15.1pp
43%
BTTS No
58%
-15.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Pittsburgh Riverhounds EU Bookmakers 69%
Head to Head
AWAY Las Vegas Lights EU Bookmakers 17%
+0% / -5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +1%
1.54/0.73 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.97/1.64
-8% / +39% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -12% / -14%
53% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 4
364 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 320 · 78%
24.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.6
18.0 Crosses 13.7
1.6 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Pittsburgh Riverhounds
1W-0D-2L
AWAY Las Vegas Lights
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.15 xG 0.73
49% Ball Possession 51%
9 Total Shots 9
3 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 3
327 Passes 349
78% Pass Accuracy 78%
21 Box Touches 13
18 Crosses 11
1 Yellow Cards 2
30.06.2024 Las Vegas Lights Las Vegas Lights 2-0 HT 1-0 Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pittsburgh Riverhounds USLP
21.05.2023 Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pittsburgh Riverhounds 4-1 HT 2-0 Las Vegas Lights Las Vegas Lights USLP
17.04.2022 Las Vegas Lights Las Vegas Lights 1-0 HT 1-0 Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pittsburgh Riverhounds USLP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Pittsburgh Riverhounds
1-0
AWAY Las Vegas Lights
2.46 xG 0.44
49% Ball Possession 51%
19 Total Shots 6
8 Shots on Target 4
9 Corners 1
261 Passes 297
71% Pass Accuracy 74%
24 Box Touches 7
29 Crosses 9
POST-MATCH Pittsburgh Riverhounds vs Las Vegas Lights
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Pittsburgh Riverhounds edged past Las Vegas Lights 1-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Pittsburgh Riverhounds as the likeliest winner at 61%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — both teams to score (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Pittsburgh Riverhounds had 49% of the ball to Las Vegas Lights's 51%, shots finished 19-6, expected goals 2.46 to 0.44 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Pittsburgh Riverhounds's control.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, Las Vegas Lights led the recent series with 2 wins. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Pittsburgh Riverhounds and 1.33 for Las Vegas Lights.

What was the final score of Pittsburgh Riverhounds vs Las Vegas Lights?

Pittsburgh Riverhounds 1-0 Las Vegas Lights in the USL Championship on 29/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Pittsburgh Riverhounds vs Las Vegas Lights?

Before kick-off our model rated a Pittsburgh Riverhounds win the most likely single outcome at about 61%, with the full match-result split Pittsburgh Riverhounds 61%, draw 24%, Las Vegas Lights 16%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Pittsburgh Riverhounds) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Pittsburgh Riverhounds) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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