Excelsior 3-1 De Graafschap — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eerste Divisie, 16 Aug 2024

📅16/08/2024 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
2.05
Draw
25%
3.54
Away
30%
2.94
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
43%
2.51
Over 2.5
57%
1.48
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.43
No
46%
2.6
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
5.5
2-3 Goals
33%
2.01
4-5 Goals
29%
2.66
6+ Goals
14%
6.42
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
2.8
1/2
8%
28.0
1/X
7%
12.25
X/1
16%
5.22
X/2
11%
7.11
X/X
10%
5.76
2/1
8%
21.85
2/2
11%
4.29
2/X
8%
12.45
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
45%
+0.8pp
25%
Draw
25%
+0.1pp
30%
Away Win
30%
-0.8pp
43%
Under 2.5
36%
+6.5pp
57%
Over 2.5
64%
-6.5pp
54%
BTTS Yes
66%
-11.8pp
46%
BTTS No
34%
+11.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Excelsior EU Bookmakers 49%
Head to Head
AWAY De Graafschap EU Bookmakers 34%
+4% / -3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / -12%
2.40/1.38 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.13/1.46
+70% / -15% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -6% / -10%
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
365 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 365 · 80%
25.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.2
22.4 Crosses 19.7
0.9 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Excelsior
1W-3D-2L
AWAY De Graafschap
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
0.76 xG 1.29
45% Ball Possession 55%
8 Total Shots 18
3 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 8
284 Passes 354
72% Pass Accuracy 77%
12 Box Touches 30
16 Crosses 27
2 Yellow Cards 2
14.01.2022 Excelsior Excelsior 0-0 HT 0-0 De Graafschap De Graafschap HOL2
17.09.2021 De Graafschap De Graafschap 3-1 HT 0-0 Excelsior Excelsior HOL2
19.03.2021 De Graafschap De Graafschap 1-1 HT 1-1 Excelsior Excelsior HOL2
05.10.2020 Excelsior Excelsior 1-2 HT 1-1 De Graafschap De Graafschap HOL2
01.11.2019 De Graafschap De Graafschap 0-0 HT 0-0 Excelsior Excelsior HOL2
26.01.2019 Excelsior Excelsior 2-0 HT 0-0 De Graafschap De Graafschap HOL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Excelsior
3-1
AWAY De Graafschap
2.61 xG 1.10
45% Ball Possession 55%
15 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 4
271 Passes 353
74% Pass Accuracy 79%
22 Box Touches 26
19 Crosses 16
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Excelsior vs De Graafschap
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Excelsior saw off De Graafschap 3-1. Half-time: 1-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had Excelsior as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (57%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Excelsior had 45% of the ball to De Graafschap's 55%, shots finished 15-15, expected goals 2.61 to 1.10.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, De Graafschap led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Excelsior and 1.00 for De Graafschap.

What was the final score of Excelsior vs De Graafschap?

Excelsior 3-1 De Graafschap in the Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on 16/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Excelsior vs De Graafschap?

Before kick-off our model rated a Excelsior win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Excelsior 46%, draw 25%, De Graafschap 30%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Excelsior), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Excelsior) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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