VVV-Venlo 0-1 Vitesse — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eerste Divisie, 16 Aug 2024

VVV-Venlo
0-1 HT 0-0
Vitesse
📅16/08/2024 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-2 ✗
Netherlands - Eerste Divisie – 2024/2025

VVV-Venlo vs Vitesse Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.09
Draw
22%
3.54
Away
36%
2.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
42%
2.23
Over 2.5
58%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.5
No
44%
2.4
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
4.58
2-3 Goals
39%
1.9
4-5 Goals
25%
2.88
6+ Goals
13%
8.23
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
2.96
1/2 EV+ ✗
12%
28.5
1/X
6%
12.65
X/1
16%
5.14
X/2
13%
6.64
X/X
9%
5.42
2/1
10%
23.15
2/2
11%
4.22
2/X
7%
12.8
Value flag · 1/2 at 28.5 — our 12% vs market 1.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
44%
-1.8pp
22%
Draw
25%
-3.3pp
36%
Away Win
31%
+5.2pp
42%
Under 2.5
41%
+1.2pp
58%
Over 2.5
59%
-1.2pp
56%
BTTS Yes
62%
-7.0pp
44%
BTTS No
38%
+7.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

VVV-Venlo v Vitesse — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME VVV-Venlo EU Bookmakers 48%
Head to Head
AWAY Vitesse EU Bookmakers 34%
+1% / -13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
-11% / -13% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) – / –
51% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
357 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 303 · 76%
21.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
26.4 Crosses –
1.4 Yellow Cards –

VVV-Venlo vs Vitesse Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME VVV-Venlo
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Vitesse
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 2.67
1.08 xG 1.39
41% Ball Possession 59%
9 Total Shots 17
3 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 4
272 Passes 410
74% Pass Accuracy 82%
14 Box Touches 27
11 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
22.07.2022 VVV-Venlo VVV-Venlo 2-2 HT 0-1 Vitesse Vitesse HAZ
02.03.2021 Vitesse Vitesse 2-0 HT 0-0 VVV-Venlo VVV-Venlo HOK
27.02.2021 Vitesse Vitesse 4-1 HT 1-1 VVV-Venlo VVV-Venlo HOL
27.01.2021 VVV-Venlo VVV-Venlo 4-1 HT 3-0 Vitesse Vitesse HOL
22.12.2019 Vitesse Vitesse 3-0 HT 2-0 VVV-Venlo VVV-Venlo HOL
19.10.2019 VVV-Venlo VVV-Venlo 0-4 HT 0-3 Vitesse Vitesse HOL

VVV-Venlo 0-1 Vitesse — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME VVV-Venlo
0-1
AWAY Vitesse
1.48 xG 0.36
46% Ball Possession 54%
20 Total Shots 6
6 Shots on Target 3
11 Corners 4
298 Passes 407
77% Pass Accuracy 82%
31 Box Touches 11
35 Crosses 9
0 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH VVV-Venlo vs Vitesse
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Vitesse nicked a narrow win over VVV-Venlo 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was VVV-Venlo at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (58%), both teams to score (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, VVV-Venlo had 46% of the ball to Vitesse's 54%, shots finished 20-6, expected goals 1.48 to 0.36 — the balance of chances actually favoured VVV-Venlo.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Vitesse led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for VVV-Venlo and 2.67 for Vitesse.

What was the final score of VVV-Venlo vs Vitesse?

VVV-Venlo 0-1 Vitesse in the Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on 16/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for VVV-Venlo vs Vitesse?

Before kick-off our model rated a VVV-Venlo win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split VVV-Venlo 42%, draw 22%, Vitesse 36%. The final score 0-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (VVV-Venlo) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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