Como 3-1 Südtirol — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Cup, 16 Aug 2025

📅16/08/2025 · 🕒19:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
69%
1.27
Draw
18%
5.15
Away
13%
8.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
2.29
Over 2.5
48%
1.56
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
2.13
No
55%
1.63
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
24%
4.34
2-3 Goals
47%
1.86
4-5 Goals
21%
2.78
6+ Goals
8%
7.84
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.34 — our 24% vs market 17.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
50%
1.4
1/2
3%
34.5
1/X
3%
23.2
X/1
15%
3.65
X/2
7%
21.95
X/X
11%
8.02
2/1
5%
23.2
2/2
3%
20.05
2/X
3%
28.0
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
69%
Home Win
75%
-5.3pp
18%
Draw
17%
+1.4pp
13%
Away Win
9%
+3.9pp
52%
Under 2.5
40%
+12.4pp
48%
Over 2.5
60%
-12.4pp
45%
BTTS Yes
43%
+1.8pp
55%
BTTS No
57%
-1.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Como EU Bookmakers 79%
Head to Head
AWAY Südtirol EU Bookmakers 11%
+22% / +22% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +20% / +20%
5.00/0.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.34/0.77
+108% / Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -61% / +150%
58% Ball Possession 42%
15 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
432 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 275 · 74%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 7.0
Crosses 9.5
Yellow Cards 1.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Como
2W-1D-2L
AWAY Südtirol
0.80 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.02 xG 1.28
55% Ball Possession 45%
12 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
384 Passes 277
84% Pass Accuracy 77%
19 Box Touches 18
20 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 2
01.04.2024 Como Como 2-0 HT 1-0 Südtirol Südtirol İTB
03.12.2023 Südtirol Südtirol 0-1 HT 0-0 Como Como İTB
11.02.2023 Südtirol Südtirol 1-1 HT 0-0 Como Como İTB
10.09.2022 Como Como 0-2 HT 0-0 Südtirol Südtirol İTB
11.01.2015 Südtirol Südtirol 2-0 HT 1-0 Como Como İTC
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Como
3-1
AWAY Südtirol
1.59 xG 1.02
79% Ball Possession 21%
16 Total Shots 5
9 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 0
654 Passes 114
90% Pass Accuracy 62%
21 Box Touches 8
8 Crosses 5
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Como vs Südtirol
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Como saw off Südtirol 3-1.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Como as the likeliest winner at 69%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Como had 79% of the ball to Südtirol's 21%, shots finished 16-5, expected goals 1.59 to 1.02.

Coming into the game, across their last 5 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.80 goals for Como and 1.00 for Südtirol.

What was the final score of Como vs Südtirol?

Como 3-1 Südtirol in the Italy - Cup on 16/08/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Como vs Südtirol?

Before kick-off our model rated a Como win the most likely single outcome at about 69%, with the full match-result split Como 69%, draw 18%, Südtirol 13%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Como) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Como) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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