Ried 1-3 Sturm Graz — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Austria - Bundesliga, 16 Aug 2025

Ried
1-3 HT 1-3
Sturm Graz
📅16/08/2025 · 🕒20:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
Austria - Bundesliga – 2025/2026

Ried vs Sturm Graz Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
25%
3.69
Draw
24%
3.64
Away
51%
1.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
2.07
Over 2.5
54%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.66
No
50%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
3.94
2-3 Goals
40%
1.85
4-5 Goals
24%
3.15
6+ Goals
10%
10.3
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
8%
6.23
1/2 EV+ ✗
9%
21.5
1/X
7%
14.4
X/1
11%
8.42
X/2
19%
4.45
X/X
8%
5.32
2/1
6%
34.5
2/2
23%
2.34
2/X
9%
13.3
Value flag · 1/2 at 21.5 — our 9% vs market 2.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
25%
Home Win
24%
+1.4pp
24%
Draw
24%
-0.5pp
51%
Away Win
52%
-0.9pp
46%
Under 2.5
44%
+1.8pp
54%
Over 2.5
56%
-1.8pp
50%
BTTS Yes
56%
-5.9pp
50%
BTTS No
44%
+5.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Ried v Sturm Graz — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Ried EU Bookmakers 27%
Head to Head
AWAY Sturm Graz EU Bookmakers 56%
+6% / +11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +12%
1.17/1.70 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.61/1.13
+16% / -6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +17% / +2%
46% Ball Possession 54%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
249 · 70% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 344 · 77%
15.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 26.2
12.4 Crosses 20.0
1.6 Yellow Cards 2.4

Ried vs Sturm Graz Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Ried
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Sturm Graz
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
0.85 xG 2.02
46% Ball Possession 54%
10 Total Shots 19
3 Shots on Target 7
3 Corners 6
250 Passes 321
66% Pass Accuracy 73%
16 Box Touches 27
11 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
28.08.2024 Ried Ried 1-3 HT 1-3 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz AVK
30.10.2022 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz 2-1 HT 1-0 Ried Ried AVU
06.08.2022 Ried Ried 1-1 HT 0-1 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz AVU
06.03.2022 Ried Ried 2-2 HT 0-0 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz AVU
27.10.2021 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz 1-2 HT 0-1 Ried Ried AUK
17.10.2021 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz 1-0 HT 1-0 Ried Ried AVU

Ried 1-3 Sturm Graz — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Ried
1-3
AWAY Sturm Graz
2.12 xG 1.59
46% Ball Possession 54%
17 Total Shots 16
5 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 5
238 Passes 284
72% Pass Accuracy 74%
20 Box Touches 30
21 Crosses 18
4 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Ried vs Sturm Graz
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sturm Graz saw off Ried 3-1 away from home.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Sturm Graz as the likeliest winner at 51%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 54% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Ried had 46% of the ball to Sturm Graz's 54%, shots finished 17-16, expected goals 2.12 to 1.59 — the balance of chances actually favoured Ried.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sturm Graz led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Ried and 1.67 for Sturm Graz.

What was the final score of Ried vs Sturm Graz?

Ried 1-3 Sturm Graz in the Austria - Bundesliga on 16/08/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Ried vs Sturm Graz?

Before kick-off our model rated an Sturm Graz win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Ried 25%, draw 24%, Sturm Graz 51%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Sturm Graz), Over 2.5 — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Sturm Graz) ✓ Over 2.5
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