Hartberg 1-2 Salzburg — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Austria - Bundesliga, 16 Aug 2025

📅16/08/2025 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 1-3
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
18%
5.4
Draw
20%
4.19
Away
62%
1.46
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
41%
2.15
Over 2.5
59%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
57%
1.82
No
43%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
4.15
2-3 Goals
42%
1.87
4-5 Goals
24%
3.04
6+ Goals
11%
9.46
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
7%
10.75
1/2 EV+ ✗
9%
21.1
1/X
5%
18.9
X/1
7%
13.1
X/2
23%
3.9
X/X
11%
6.34
2/1
4%
34.5
2/2
30%
1.74
2/X
4%
16.5
Value flag · 1/2 at 21.1 — our 9% vs market 2.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
18%
Home Win
15%
+2.6pp
20%
Draw
21%
-0.3pp
62%
Away Win
64%
-2.5pp
41%
Under 2.5
43%
-1.7pp
59%
Over 2.5
57%
+1.7pp
57%
BTTS Yes
51%
+5.8pp
43%
BTTS No
49%
-5.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Hartberg EU Bookmakers 18%
Head to Head
AWAY Salzburg EU Bookmakers 69%
+7% / +3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / -22%
1.20/1.96 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.85/0.96
+28% / -20% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +11% / -10%
42% Ball Possession 58%
11 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
256 · 69% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 380 · 76%
17.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 27.6
14.9 Crosses 21.1
2.5 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Hartberg
0W-2D-4L
AWAY Salzburg
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 3.17
0.89 xG 3.13
46% Ball Possession 54%
10 Total Shots 19
3 Shots on Target 8
4 Corners 5
363 Passes 403
79% Pass Accuracy 82%
16 Box Touches 29
11 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 2
04.12.2024 Salzburg Salzburg 4-0 HT 2-0 Hartberg Hartberg AVU
30.11.2024 Hartberg Hartberg 1-1 HT 0-1 Salzburg Salzburg AVU
12.05.2024 Hartberg Hartberg 1-5 HT 1-3 Salzburg Salzburg AVU
17.03.2024 Salzburg Salzburg 5-1 HT 2-0 Hartberg Hartberg AVU
25.11.2023 Salzburg Salzburg 3-2 HT 1-1 Hartberg Hartberg AVU
01.11.2023 Hartberg Hartberg 1-1 HT 0-0 Salzburg Salzburg AUK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Hartberg
1-2
AWAY Salzburg
2.54 xG 0.85
32% Ball Possession 68%
15 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 5
2 Corners 3
210 Passes 557
69% Pass Accuracy 87%
17 Box Touches 23
4 Crosses 20
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Hartberg vs Salzburg
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Salzburg edged past Hartberg 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Salzburg as the likeliest winner at 62%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (59%), both teams to score (57%) came in.

On the day, Hartberg had 32% of the ball to Salzburg's 68%, shots finished 15-10, expected goals 2.54 to 0.85 — the balance of chances actually favoured Hartberg.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Salzburg led the recent series with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Hartberg and 3.17 for Salzburg.

What was the final score of Hartberg vs Salzburg?

Hartberg 1-2 Salzburg in the Austria - Bundesliga on 16/08/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Hartberg vs Salzburg?

Before kick-off our model rated an Salzburg win the most likely single outcome at about 62%, with the full match-result split Hartberg 18%, draw 20%, Salzburg 62%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Salzburg), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Salzburg) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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