IFK Mariehamn 3-0 KTP Kotka — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Finland - Veikkausliiga, 16 Aug 2025

📅16/08/2025 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.33
Draw
28%
3.45
Away
33%
2.54
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
2.21
Over 2.5
52%
1.6
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.5
No
44%
2.4
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
4.5
2-3 Goals
38%
1.91
4-5 Goals
26%
2.92
6+ Goals
10%
8.39
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
3.4
1/2
7%
24.95
1/X
6%
12.05
X/1
15%
5.78
X/2
11%
6.13
X/X
13%
5.26
2/1 EV+ ✗
9%
24.1
2/2
15%
3.72
2/X
9%
12.15
Value flag · 2/1 at 24.1 — our 9% vs market 2.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
39%
+0.4pp
28%
Draw
26%
+2.6pp
33%
Away Win
36%
-2.9pp
48%
Under 2.5
41%
+6.2pp
52%
Over 2.5
59%
-6.2pp
56%
BTTS Yes
62%
-6.2pp
44%
BTTS No
38%
+6.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME IFK Mariehamn EU Bookmakers 43%
Head to Head
AWAY KTP Kotka EU Bookmakers 39%
-5% / -13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -19% / -19%
1.64/1.47 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.02/1.32
-30% / -22% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -74% / +83%
50% Ball Possession 50%
13 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
294 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 363 · 80%
22.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 24.0
20.8 Crosses 25.0
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME IFK Mariehamn
1W-3D-2L
AWAY KTP Kotka
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.36 xG 1.81
46% Ball Possession 54%
16 Total Shots 16
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
278 Passes 355
76% Pass Accuracy 81%
30 Box Touches 30
17 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 2
31.05.2025 KTP Kotka KTP Kotka 2-2 HT 0-1 IFK Mariehamn IFK Mariehamn FİN
22.02.2025 IFK Mariehamn IFK Mariehamn 1-2 KTP Kotka KTP Kotka FLK
21.10.2023 KTP Kotka KTP Kotka 0-2 HT 0-2 IFK Mariehamn IFK Mariehamn FİN
01.07.2023 IFK Mariehamn IFK Mariehamn 0-0 HT 0-0 KTP Kotka KTP Kotka FİN
22.04.2023 KTP Kotka KTP Kotka 2-1 HT 1-0 IFK Mariehamn IFK Mariehamn FİN
12.02.2023 IFK Mariehamn IFK Mariehamn 1-1 HT 1-1 KTP Kotka KTP Kotka FLK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME IFK Mariehamn
3-0
AWAY KTP Kotka
1.29 xG 1.25
37% Ball Possession 63%
14 Total Shots 23
10 Shots on Target 1
4 Corners 7
224 Passes 427
74% Pass Accuracy 85%
21 Box Touches 38
13 Crosses 32
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH IFK Mariehamn vs KTP Kotka
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

IFK Mariehamn swept aside KTP Kotka 3-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 39% / 28% / 33% — and on the day IFK Mariehamn made the difference. The goals read — both teams to score (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, IFK Mariehamn had 37% of the ball to KTP Kotka's 63%, shots finished 14-23, expected goals 1.29 to 1.25.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, KTP Kotka led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for IFK Mariehamn and 1.17 for KTP Kotka.

What was the final score of IFK Mariehamn vs KTP Kotka?

IFK Mariehamn 3-0 KTP Kotka in the Finland - Veikkausliiga on 16/08/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for IFK Mariehamn vs KTP Kotka?

Before kick-off our model rated a IFK Mariehamn win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split IFK Mariehamn 39%, draw 28%, KTP Kotka 33%. The final score 3-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (IFK Mariehamn), Over 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (IFK Mariehamn) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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