Katowice 4-1 Arka Gdynia — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Poland - Ekstraklasa, 16 Aug 2025

📅16/08/2025 · 🕒18:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
2.09
Draw
26%
3.45
Away
31%
2.94
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.0
Over 2.5
51%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.63
No
47%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
3.54
2-3 Goals
37%
1.75
4-5 Goals
25%
3.04
6+ Goals
10%
10.25
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
2.98
1/2
7%
29.5
1/X
4%
12.55
X/1
16%
5.07
X/2
15%
6.64
X/X
12%
4.97
2/1
11%
23.65
2/2
9%
4.52
2/X
10%
13.05
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
44%
-0.9pp
26%
Draw
26%
+0.4pp
31%
Away Win
30%
+0.5pp
49%
Under 2.5
46%
+3.0pp
51%
Over 2.5
54%
-3.0pp
53%
BTTS Yes
57%
-4.1pp
47%
BTTS No
43%
+4.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Katowice EU Bookmakers 48%
Head to Head
AWAY Arka Gdynia EU Bookmakers 34%
+13% / +13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -2%
1.43/1.70 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.49/1.92
+5% / +11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -29% / +5%
53% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
289 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 230 · 75%
27.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.0
21.9 Crosses 21.0
1.1 Yellow Cards 4.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Katowice
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Arka Gdynia
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
45% Ball Possession 55%
11 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 7
4 Corners 6
1 Yellow Cards 2
26.05.2024 Arka Gdynia Arka Gdynia 0-1 HT 0-1 Katowice Katowice POL1
02.12.2023 Katowice Katowice 1-1 HT 0-1 Arka Gdynia Arka Gdynia POL1
01.04.2023 Arka Gdynia Arka Gdynia 2-2 HT 2-1 Katowice Katowice POL1
28.08.2022 Katowice Katowice 0-1 HT 0-0 Arka Gdynia Arka Gdynia POL1
19.03.2022 Arka Gdynia Arka Gdynia 2-2 HT 0-1 Katowice Katowice POL1
16.09.2021 Katowice Katowice 2-4 HT 1-1 Arka Gdynia Arka Gdynia POL1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Katowice
4-1
AWAY Arka Gdynia
3.18 xG 0.59
42% Ball Possession 58%
24 Total Shots 12
10 Shots on Target 3
8 Corners 5
202 Passes 311
76% Pass Accuracy 82%
40 Box Touches 19
26 Crosses 18
1 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Katowice vs Arka Gdynia
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Katowice swept aside Arka Gdynia 4-1. Half-time: 2-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Katowice as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Katowice had 42% of the ball to Arka Gdynia's 58%, shots finished 24-12, expected goals 3.18 to 0.59.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Arka Gdynia led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Katowice and 1.67 for Arka Gdynia.

What was the final score of Katowice vs Arka Gdynia?

Katowice 4-1 Arka Gdynia in the Poland - Ekstraklasa on 16/08/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Katowice vs Arka Gdynia?

Before kick-off our model rated a Katowice win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Katowice 43%, draw 26%, Arka Gdynia 31%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Katowice), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Katowice) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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