Lech Poznan 1-1 Korona Kielce — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Poland - Ekstraklasa, 16 Aug 2025

Lech Poznan
1-1 HT 0-0
Korona Kielce
📅16/08/2025 · 🕒21:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 3-1 ✗
Poland - Ekstraklasa – 2025/2026

Lech Poznan vs Korona Kielce Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
59%
1.75
Draw
21%
3.72
Away
20%
3.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
42%
2.07
Over 2.5
58%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.68
No
45%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
3.69
2-3 Goals
37%
1.77
4-5 Goals
27%
2.96
6+ Goals
12%
9.55
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
2.22
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
6%
13.7
X/1
27%
4.32
X/2
6%
8.94
X/X
8%
5.45
2/1 EV+ ✗
11%
21.35
2/2
9%
6.75
2/X
7%
15.0
Value flag · 2/1 at 21.35 — our 11% vs market 2.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
59%
Home Win
53%
+5.3pp
21%
Draw
24%
-2.8pp
20%
Away Win
23%
-2.5pp
42%
Under 2.5
44%
-2.6pp
58%
Over 2.5
56%
+2.6pp
55%
BTTS Yes
56%
-1.0pp
45%
BTTS No
44%
+1.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Lech Poznan v Korona Kielce — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lech Poznan EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Korona Kielce EU Bookmakers 26%
-7% / -5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / +9%
1.67/0.93 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.00/1.19
-9% / +15% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -20% / +6%
53% Ball Possession 47%
16 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
376 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 326 · 79%
27.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.1
23.5 Crosses 17.3
1.7 Yellow Cards 2.1

Lech Poznan vs Korona Kielce Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lech Poznan
6W-0D-0L
AWAY Korona Kielce
2.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.96 xG 1.31
61% Ball Possession 39%
17 Total Shots 14
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 6
412 Passes 226
81% Pass Accuracy 70%
29 Box Touches 19
19 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
05.04.2025 Lech Poznan Lech Poznan 2-0 HT 1-0 Korona Kielce Korona Kielce POL
29.09.2024 Korona Kielce Korona Kielce 2-3 HT 1-1 Lech Poznan Lech Poznan POL
02.12.2023 Korona Kielce Korona Kielce 0-1 HT 0-0 Lech Poznan Lech Poznan POL
19.05.2023 Korona Kielce Korona Kielce 0-3 HT 0-1 Lech Poznan Lech Poznan POL
06.11.2022 Lech Poznan Lech Poznan 3-2 HT 1-0 Korona Kielce Korona Kielce POL
14.06.2020 Korona Kielce Korona Kielce 0-3 HT 0-0 Lech Poznan Lech Poznan POL

Lech Poznan 1-1 Korona Kielce — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lech Poznan
1-1
AWAY Korona Kielce
1.45 xG 1.34
65% Ball Possession 35%
18 Total Shots 16
8 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 0
422 Passes 196
84% Pass Accuracy 76%
35 Box Touches 27
26 Crosses 18
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Lech Poznan vs Korona Kielce
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lech Poznan and Korona Kielce couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-0.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Lech Poznan at 59% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one. On goals, both teams to score (55%) landed while over 2.5 goals (58%) missed.

On the day, Lech Poznan had 65% of the ball to Korona Kielce's 35%, shots finished 18-16, expected goals 1.45 to 1.34.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Lech Poznan had the better of it with 6 wins. Those games averaged 2.50 goals for Lech Poznan and 0.67 for Korona Kielce.

What was the final score of Lech Poznan vs Korona Kielce?

Lech Poznan 1-1 Korona Kielce in the Poland - Ekstraklasa on 16/08/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lech Poznan vs Korona Kielce?

Before kick-off our model rated a Lech Poznan win the most likely single outcome at about 59%, with the full match-result split Lech Poznan 59%, draw 21%, Korona Kielce 20%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Lech Poznan), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Lech Poznan) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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