Arsenal vs Manchester City Prediction, Probabilities & Odds — England - Community Shield, 16 Aug 2026

Arsenal
vs
Manchester City
📅16/08/2026 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
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England - Community Shield – 2026/2027

Arsenal vs Manchester City Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
2.38
Draw
24%
3.35
Away
33%
2.51
Under/Over 2.5
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Both Teams to Score
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Total Goals
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Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
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Arsenal v Manchester City — Team-Based Signals

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iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
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Team-Based Signals — members only
The why behind every prediction: how each side performs against the bookmaker, expected goals, attack & defence versus the league, and the on-pitch signals below.
  • Team Performance vs Market
  • Expected Goals — scored / conceded
  • Attack / Defense vs League Average
  • Possession · Total Shots · Shots on Target
  • Corners · Passes · Box Touches · Crosses · Cards
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Arsenal vs Manchester City Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Arsenal
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Manchester City
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
0.93 xG 1.30
40% Ball Possession 60%
9 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
287 Passes 469
78% Pass Accuracy 86%
19 Box Touches 31
14 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
19.04.2026 Manchester City Manchester City 2-1 HT 1-1 Arsenal Arsenal İNP
22.03.2026 Arsenal Arsenal 0-2 HT 0-0 Manchester City Manchester City İNLK
21.09.2025 Arsenal Arsenal 1-1 HT 0-1 Manchester City Manchester City İNP
02.02.2025 Arsenal Arsenal 5-1 HT 1-0 Manchester City Manchester City İNP
22.09.2024 Manchester City Manchester City 2-2 HT 1-2 Arsenal Arsenal İNP
31.03.2024 Manchester City Manchester City 0-0 HT 0-0 Arsenal Arsenal İNP
COMMENT Arsenal vs Manchester City
iddaakolik Match Comment — summary & quick answers

Across their last 6 meetings in our records, Manchester City lead the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Arsenal and 1.33 for Manchester City.

When do Arsenal and Manchester City play?

Arsenal play Manchester City in the England - Community Shield on 16/08/2026, kick-off 17:00 (Istanbul · GMT+3).

Who is predicted to win Arsenal vs Manchester City?

Our model's prediction for Arsenal vs Manchester City is a Arsenal win at about 43% probability, priced 2.38 at EU bookmakers. The full match-result split is Arsenal 43%, draw 24%, Manchester City 34%. These are probability estimates, not certainties — the most likely outcome still loses much of the time.

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