Genoa 4-1 Ascoli — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Cup, 16 Aug 2026

Genoa
4-1 HT 2-1
Ascoli
📅16/08/2026 · 🕒19:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Authentic Intelligence™ · Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home Pick
62%
1.45
Draw
20%
4.19
Away
18%
5.64
Under/Over 2.5
Under
42%
1.95
Over
58%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
2.0
No
45%
1.72
Total Goals
0-1
22%
3.4
2-3
39%
1.78
4-5
26%
3.33
6+
13%
12.35
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
34%
1.78
1/2
4%
34.5
1/X
6%
17.8
X/1
19%
3.8
X/2
6%
13.1
X/X
7%
5.95
2/1
9%
23.35
2/2
8%
11.4
2/X
7%
20.35
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Genoa win — 62%
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
STRENGTH Home Win — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Selection The Market
62%
Home Win
65%
-2.6pp
20%
Draw
21%
-0.2pp
18%
Away Win
15%
+2.8pp
42%
Under 2.5
48%
-5.4pp
58%
Over 2.5
52%
+5.4pp
55%
BTTS Yes
46%
+8.9pp
45%
BTTS No
54%
-8.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Genoa The Market 69%
Head to Head
AWAY Ascoli The Market 18%
+11% / +19% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -12% / -12%
1.83/0.86 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.77/1.94
+17% / -28% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +30% / -26%
57% Ball Possession 43%
14 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
379 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 248 · 73%
23.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.8
18.6 Crosses 10.1
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Genoa
4W-2D-0L
AWAY Ascoli
2.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.67 xG 1.17
58% Ball Possession 42%
15 Total Shots 8
7 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 2
304 Passes 254
74% Pass Accuracy 73%
18 Box Touches 18
14 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 2
06.05.2023 Genoa Genoa 2-1 HT 1-0 Ascoli Ascoli İTB
11.12.2022 Ascoli Ascoli 0-0 HT 0-0 Genoa Genoa İTB
03.12.2019 Genoa Genoa 3-2 HT 1-0 Ascoli Ascoli İTK
18.08.2007 Ascoli Ascoli 2-2 HT 1-0 Genoa Genoa İTK
25.04.2005 Ascoli Ascoli 0-3 HT 0-2 Genoa Genoa İTB
21.11.2004 Genoa Genoa 3-0 HT 0-0 Ascoli Ascoli İTB
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Genoa
4-1
AWAY Ascoli
1.83 xG 0.42
24 Total Shots 9
10 Shots on Target 2
8 Corners 2
278 Passes 482
27 Box Touches 18
16 Crosses 7
1 Yellow Cards 1
REVIEW Genoa vs Ascoli
IDDAAKOLIK POST-MATCH REVIEW

Genoa made light work of Ascoli 4-1. Half-time: 2-1. A 5-goal game — the defences never settled.

As we said in the preview, our model had Genoa as the likeliest winner at 62%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (58%), both teams to score (55%), and both reads landed as well.

By the numbers, shots finished 24-9, expected goals 1.83 to 0.42.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Genoa had the better of it with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Scoring in those meetings ran 2.17 a game for Genoa against 0.83 for Ascoli.

Genoa vs Ascoli Result & Final Score

Genoa 4-1 Ascoli in the Italy - Cup on 16/08/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

Genoa vs Ascoli Prediction vs Result

Before kick-off our model rated a Genoa win the most likely single outcome at about 62%, with the full match-result split Genoa 62%, draw 20%, Ascoli 18%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Genoa), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Genoa) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
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