San Jose Earthquakes vs St. Louis Prediction — Model Probabilities
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
San Jose Earthquakes v St. Louis — Team-Based Signals
San Jose Earthquakes 1-3 St. Louis — Actual Match Statistics
St. Louis beat San Jose Earthquakes 3-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-2.
Our pre-match split (38% / 24% / 38%) promised a tight game; St. Louis found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (62%), both teams to score (63%), and both reads landed as well.
On the day, shots finished 6-14, expected goals 0.19 to 2.81.
What was the final score of San Jose Earthquakes vs St. Louis?
San Jose Earthquakes 1-3 St. Louis in the USA - Major League on 16/08/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for San Jose Earthquakes vs St. Louis?
Before kick-off our model rated a San Jose Earthquakes win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split San Jose Earthquakes 38%, draw 24%, St. Louis 38%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.