Ballymena United 1-0 Linfield FC — Result, Statistics & Match Review — North Ireland - Premier League, 16 Sep 2025

📅16/09/2025 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 0-3
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
20%
4.48
Draw
20%
3.64
Away
60%
1.68
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
1.8
Over 2.5
53%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.9
No
52%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
2.92
2-3 Goals
45%
1.71
4-5 Goals
22%
3.53
6+ Goals
10%
14.7
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
7%
8.15
1/2 EV+ ✗
7%
23.65
1/X
4%
16.95
X/1
9%
9.68
X/2
15%
3.96
X/X
10%
4.98
2/1
4%
34.5
2/2
39%
2.12
2/X
5%
15.2
Value flag · 1/2 at 23.65 — our 7% vs market 2.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
20%
Home Win
20%
+0.7pp
20%
Draw
25%
-5.1pp
60%
Away Win
56%
+4.4pp
47%
Under 2.5
52%
-5.0pp
53%
Over 2.5
48%
+5.0pp
48%
BTTS Yes
49%
-0.5pp
52%
BTTS No
51%
+0.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Ballymena United EU Bookmakers 22%
Head to Head
AWAY Linfield FC EU Bookmakers 60%
+12% / +19% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +10%
1.24/1.31 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.21/1.07
+17% / +37% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +18% / -2%
45% Ball Possession 55%
8 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 6
266 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 395 · 80%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Ballymena United
0W-1D-5L
AWAY Linfield FC
0.33 Avg Goals (FT) 2.33
36% Ball Possession 64%
6 Total Shots 12
1 Shots on Target 5
2 Corners 7
2 Yellow Cards 1
07.02.2025 Ballymena United Ballymena United 2-2 HT 1-1 Linfield FC Linfield FC KİRL
09.11.2024 Linfield FC Linfield FC 2-0 HT 0-0 Ballymena United Ballymena United KİRL
10.08.2024 Ballymena United Ballymena United 0-2 HT 0-0 Linfield FC Linfield FC KİRL
24.02.2024 Linfield FC Linfield FC 2-0 HT 0-0 Ballymena United Ballymena United KİRL
03.02.2024 Linfield FC Linfield FC 2-0 HT 1-0 Ballymena United Ballymena United KİRK
25.11.2023 Linfield FC Linfield FC 4-0 HT 2-0 Ballymena United Ballymena United KİRL
POST-MATCH Ballymena United vs Linfield FC
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Ballymena United nicked a narrow win over Linfield FC 1-0.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Linfield FC at 60% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Linfield FC led the recent series with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.33 goals for Ballymena United and 2.33 for Linfield FC.

What was the final score of Ballymena United vs Linfield FC?

Ballymena United 1-0 Linfield FC in the North Ireland - Premier League on 16/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Ballymena United vs Linfield FC?

Before kick-off our model rated an Linfield FC win the most likely single outcome at about 60%, with the full match-result split Ballymena United 20%, draw 20%, Linfield FC 60%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS No — while Match Result (Linfield FC), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Linfield FC) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
KİRL More North Ireland - Premier League
16 Sep 2025
21:45 Larne FC vs Crusaders FC Analysis →