Larne FC 4-0 Crusaders FC — Result, Statistics & Match Review — North Ireland - Premier League, 16 Sep 2025

📅16/09/2025 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
62%
1.53
Draw
23%
3.8
Away
15%
5.27
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.82
Over 2.5
45%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.99
No
55%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
2.99
2-3 Goals
42%
1.71
4-5 Goals
22%
3.45
6+ Goals
6%
14.0
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.99 — our 30% vs market 26.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
1.88
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
6%
16.45
X/1 EV+ ✗
35%
3.8
X/2
3%
11.8
X/X
10%
5.28
2/1
5%
24.1
2/2
6%
10.3
2/X
7%
18.8
Value flag · X/1 at 3.8 — our 35% vs market 20.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
62%
Home Win
61%
+0.9pp
23%
Draw
23%
+0.4pp
15%
Away Win
16%
-1.3pp
55%
Under 2.5
51%
+3.9pp
45%
Over 2.5
49%
-3.9pp
45%
BTTS Yes
46%
-0.7pp
55%
BTTS No
54%
+0.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Larne FC EU Bookmakers 66%
Head to Head
AWAY Crusaders FC EU Bookmakers 19%
-7% / -15% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +12% / +20%
2.00/0.81 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.88/0.89
-2% / +2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -6% / +109%
56% Ball Possession 44%
14 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
340 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 225 · 67%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Larne FC
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Crusaders FC
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
48% Ball Possession 52%
7 Total Shots 9
3 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 11
3 Yellow Cards 4
05.04.2025 Crusaders FC Crusaders FC 2-2 HT 0-1 Larne FC Larne FC KİRL
08.02.2025 Larne FC Larne FC 0-1 HT 0-1 Crusaders FC Crusaders FC KİRL
07.01.2025 Crusaders FC Crusaders FC 1-3 HT 1-1 Larne FC Larne FC KİRL
19.10.2024 Larne FC Larne FC 1-1 Crusaders FC Crusaders FC KİRL
06.04.2024 Larne FC Larne FC 0-1 HT 0-0 Crusaders FC Crusaders FC KİRL
12.01.2024 Crusaders FC Crusaders FC 0-2 HT 0-1 Larne FC Larne FC KİRL
POST-MATCH Larne FC vs Crusaders FC
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Larne FC ran out comfortable winners over Crusaders FC 4-0. Half-time: 1-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Larne FC as the likeliest winner at 62%, and the 4-0 landed on that lead. On goals, no to both teams scoring (55%) landed while under 2.5 goals (55%) missed.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Larne FC and 1.00 for Crusaders FC.

What was the final score of Larne FC vs Crusaders FC?

Larne FC 4-0 Crusaders FC in the North Ireland - Premier League on 16/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Larne FC vs Crusaders FC?

Before kick-off our model rated a Larne FC win the most likely single outcome at about 62%, with the full match-result split Larne FC 62%, draw 23%, Crusaders FC 15%. The final score 4-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Larne FC), BTTS No — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Larne FC) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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