Brezilya 4-0 Peru — Result, Statistics & Match Review — World Cup Qualifiers, 16 Oct 2024

📅16/10/2024 · 🕒00:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
62%
1.27
Draw
22%
4.95
Away
16%
10.87
Under/Over 2.5
Under
59%
1.9
Over
41%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
33%
2.75
No Pick
67%
1.39
Total Goals
0-1
35%
3.35
2-3
40%
1.78
4-5
16%
3.53
6+
9%
13.95
Value flag · 0-1 at 3.35 — our 35% vs market 24.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
31%
1.43
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
6%
31.5
X/1
24%
3.09
X/2
5%
27.0
X/X
9%
6.98
2/1
7%
31.5
2/2
7%
25.5
2/X
6%
32.5
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
BTTS No — 67%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Home Win Under 2.5 — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
62%
Home Win
75%
-13.4pp
22%
Draw
18%
+4.1pp
16%
Away Win
7%
+9.3pp
59%
Under 2.5
49%
+9.7pp
41%
Over 2.5
51%
-9.7pp
33%
BTTS Yes
32%
+0.4pp
67%
BTTS No
68%
-0.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Brezilya EU Bookmakers 79%
Head to Head
AWAY Peru EU Bookmakers 9%
+5% / +7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +5%
2.10/0.50 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.42/1.35
-7% / +100% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -44% / +94%
61% Ball Possession 39%
12 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
472 · 86% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 227 · 74%
29.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 8.3
15.2 Crosses 6.8
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Brezilya
5W-0D-1L
AWAY Peru
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
2.26 xG 0.72
59% Ball Possession 41%
13 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 2
3 Corners 3
465 Passes 304
87% Pass Accuracy 81%
25 Box Touches 10
10 Crosses 11
2 Yellow Cards 3
13.09.2023 Peru Peru 0-1 HT 0-0 Brezilya Brezilya DKE
10.09.2021 Brezilya Brezilya 2-0 HT 2-0 Peru Peru DKE
06.07.2021 Brezilya Brezilya 1-0 HT 1-0 Peru Peru AKU
18.06.2021 Brezilya Brezilya 4-0 HT 1-0 Peru Peru AKU
14.10.2020 Peru Peru 2-4 HT 1-1 Brezilya Brezilya DKE
11.09.2019 Brezilya Brezilya 0-1 HT 0-0 Peru Peru HAZ
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Brezilya
4-0
AWAY Peru
68% Ball Possession 32%
18 Total Shots 3
8 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 1
460 Passes 183
91% Pass Accuracy 76%
POST-MATCH Brezilya vs Peru
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Brezilya ran out comfortable winners over Peru 4-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Brezilya as the likeliest winner at 62%, and the 4-0 landed on that lead. On goals, no to both teams scoring (67%) landed while under 2.5 goals (59%) missed.

On the day, Brezilya had 68% of the ball to Peru's 32%, shots finished 18-3.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Brezilya had the better of it with 5 wins. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Brezilya and 0.50 for Peru.

What was the final score of Brezilya vs Peru?

Brezilya 4-0 Peru in the World Cup Qualifiers on 16/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Brezilya vs Peru?

Before kick-off our model rated a Brezilya win the most likely single outcome at about 62%, with the full match-result split Brezilya 62%, draw 22%, Peru 16%. The final score 4-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Brezilya), BTTS No — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Brezilya) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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