Paraguay 2-1 Venezuela — Result, Statistics & Match Review — World Cup Qualifiers, 16 Oct 2024

Paraguay
2-1 HT 0-1
Venezuela
📅16/10/2024 · 🕒02:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 2-0 ✗
World Cup Qualifiers – 2026

Paraguay vs Venezuela Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
1.8
Draw
24%
3.18
Away
26%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
58%
1.51
Over
42%
2.43
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
2.4
No
58%
1.5
Total Goals
0-1
30%
2.08
2-3
43%
1.83
4-5
19%
6.2
6+
8%
34.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
29%
2.5
1/2
4%
34.5
1/X
7%
17.45
X/1
15%
3.62
X/2
8%
8.58
X/X
11%
3.71
2/1
5%
33.0
2/2
14%
8.14
2/X
7%
18.45
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
◎
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 58% ✗
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Home Win Under 2.5 BTTS No — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
50%
Home Win
52%
-1.9pp
25%
Draw
28%
-3.7pp
26%
Away Win
20%
+5.6pp
58%
Under 2.5
62%
-4.4pp
42%
Over 2.5
38%
+4.4pp
42%
BTTS Yes
38%
+4.7pp
58%
BTTS No
62%
-4.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Paraguay v Venezuela — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Paraguay EU Bookmakers 56%
Head to Head
AWAY Venezuela EU Bookmakers 23%
-6% / -6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -19% / -19%
1.05/0.73 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.80/1.72
-50% / +77% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -32% / -50%
53% Ball Possession 47%
12 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
285 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 354 · 78%
25.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.8
32.0 Crosses 17.4
0.7 Yellow Cards 2.3

Paraguay vs Venezuela Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Paraguay
3W-0D-3L
AWAY Venezuela
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.15 xG 1.28
53% Ball Possession 47%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
320 Passes 256
77% Pass Accuracy 75%
22 Box Touches 16
26 Crosses 14
3 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
13.09.2023 Venezuela Venezuela 1-0 HT 0-0 Paraguay Paraguay DKE
10.09.2021 Paraguay Paraguay 2-1 HT 1-0 Venezuela Venezuela DKE
14.10.2020 Venezuela Venezuela 0-1 HT 0-0 Paraguay Paraguay DKE
11.10.2017 Paraguay Paraguay 0-1 HT 0-0 Venezuela Venezuela DKE
09.10.2015 Venezuela Venezuela 0-1 HT 0-0 Paraguay Paraguay DKE
12.09.2012 Paraguay Paraguay 0-2 HT 0-1 Venezuela Venezuela DKE

Paraguay 2-1 Venezuela — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Paraguay
2-1
AWAY Venezuela
3.07 xG 0.21
60% Ball Possession 40%
13 Total Shots 6
6 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 1
306 Passes 184
76% Pass Accuracy 67%
21 Box Touches 6
29 Crosses 10
2 Yellow Cards 6
POST-MATCH Paraguay vs Venezuela
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Paraguay nicked a narrow win over Venezuela 2-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Paraguay as the likeliest winner at 50%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (58%), no to both teams scoring (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Paraguay had 60% of the ball to Venezuela's 40%, shots finished 13-6, expected goals 3.07 to 0.21 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Paraguay's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Paraguay and 0.83 for Venezuela.

What was the final score of Paraguay vs Venezuela?

Paraguay 2-1 Venezuela in the World Cup Qualifiers on 16/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Paraguay vs Venezuela?

Before kick-off our model rated a Paraguay win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Paraguay 50%, draw 25%, Venezuela 26%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Paraguay) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Paraguay) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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