Boston River 1-0 Progreso — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Uruguay - Premier League, 16 Oct 2024

📅16/10/2024 · 🕒23:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
1.64
Draw
28%
3.35
Away
24%
5.27
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.59
Over 2.5
43%
2.23
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
2.27
No
53%
1.56
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
31%
2-3 Goals
41%
4-5 Goals
20%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
1/2
5%
1/X
6%
X/1
24%
X/2
8%
X/X
13%
2/1
5%
2/2
10%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
49%
Home Win
57%
-8.5pp
28%
Draw
27%
+1.1pp
24%
Away Win
16%
+7.5pp
57%
Under 2.5
59%
-2.2pp
43%
Over 2.5
41%
+2.2pp
47%
BTTS Yes
40%
+7.2pp
53%
BTTS No
60%
-7.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Boston River EU Bookmakers 61%
Head to Head
AWAY Progreso EU Bookmakers 19%
+7% / +7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -9% / -8%
1.46/0.89 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.68/1.56
-8% / -5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -23% / -3%
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 4
340 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 312 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.9 Yellow Cards 3.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Boston River
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Progreso
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
56% Ball Possession 44%
9 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
2 Yellow Cards 2
13.04.2024 Progreso Progreso 1-0 HT 1-0 Boston River Boston River URU
08.11.2021 Boston River Boston River 0-0 HT 0-0 Progreso Progreso URU
16.07.2021 Progreso Progreso 1-0 HT 0-0 Boston River Boston River URU
24.02.2021 Boston River Boston River 2-3 HT 1-0 Progreso Progreso URU
30.08.2020 Progreso Progreso 1-2 HT 1-1 Boston River Boston River URU
16.10.2019 Boston River Boston River 1-1 HT 0-0 Progreso Progreso URU
POST-MATCH Boston River vs Progreso
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Boston River nicked a narrow win over Progreso 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Boston River as the likeliest winner at 49%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (57%) came in.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Progreso led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Boston River and 1.17 for Progreso.

What was the final score of Boston River vs Progreso?

Boston River 1-0 Progreso in the Uruguay - Premier League on 16/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Boston River vs Progreso?

Before kick-off our model rated a Boston River win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Boston River 49%, draw 28%, Progreso 24%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Boston River), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Boston River) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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