Alfreton Town 3-2 Needham Market — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - FA Cup, 16 Nov 2024

📅16/11/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
1.64
Draw
26%
3.64
Away
27%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
51%
1.86
Over
49%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.88
No
51%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1
22%
2-3
46%
4-5
21%
6+
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
1/2
5%
1/X
7%
X/1
15%
X/2
17%
X/X
4%
2/1
4%
2/2
5%
2/X
15%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 51%
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
STRENGTH Under 2.5 — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Selection The Market
47%
Home Win
56%
-9.4pp
26%
Draw
24%
+2.6pp
27%
Away Win
20%
+6.9pp
51%
Under 2.5
50%
+0.7pp
49%
Over 2.5
50%
-0.7pp
49%
BTTS Yes
49%
-0.5pp
51%
BTTS No
51%
+0.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Alfreton Town The Market 61%
Head to Head
AWAY Needham Market The Market 23%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
/ Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
54% Ball Possession 46%
12 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
372 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 262 · 73%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Alfreton Town
1W-0D-0L
AWAY Needham Market
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.00
26.08.2024 Needham Market Needham Market 0-2 HT 0-0 Alfreton Town Alfreton Town İCON
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Alfreton Town
3-2
AWAY Needham Market
40% Ball Possession 60%
13 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 4
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Alfreton Town vs Needham Market
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Alfreton Town nicked a narrow win over Needham Market 3-2. Half-time: 2-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Alfreton Town as the likeliest winner at 47%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Alfreton Town had 40% of the ball to Needham Market's 60%, shots finished 13-10.

What was the final score of Alfreton Town vs Needham Market?

Alfreton Town 3-2 Needham Market in the England - FA Cup on 16/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Alfreton Town vs Needham Market?

Before kick-off our model rated a Alfreton Town win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Alfreton Town 47%, draw 26%, Needham Market 27%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Alfreton Town) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Alfreton Town) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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