Matsumoto Yamaga 2-1 Ryukyu — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J3 League, 16 Nov 2024

📅16/11/2024 · 🕒08:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
54%
1.64
Draw
23%
3.64
Away
23%
4.75
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.86
Over 2.5
47%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
1.9
No
56%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
2-3 Goals
38%
4-5 Goals
24%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
1/2
6%
1/X
5%
X/1
14%
X/2
6%
X/X
10%
2/1
12%
2/2
11%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
54%
Home Win
57%
-3.5pp
24%
Draw
24%
-1.0pp
23%
Away Win
18%
+4.5pp
53%
Under 2.5
50%
+3.4pp
47%
Over 2.5
50%
-3.4pp
44%
BTTS Yes
49%
-4.2pp
56%
BTTS No
51%
+4.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Matsumoto Yamaga EU Bookmakers 61%
Head to Head
AWAY Ryukyu EU Bookmakers 21%
+1% / -4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +9%
1.48/1.07 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.13/1.59
-16% / -12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +5% / -6%
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 5
298 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 279 · 72%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
25.3 Crosses 13.6
1.4 Yellow Cards 1.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Matsumoto Yamaga
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Ryukyu
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
47% Ball Possession 53%
14 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 5
1 Yellow Cards 2
02.03.2024 Ryukyu Ryukyu 2-2 HT 0-0 Matsumoto Yamaga Matsumoto Yamaga JAP3
09.09.2023 Matsumoto Yamaga Matsumoto Yamaga 2-1 HT 1-0 Ryukyu Ryukyu JAP3
08.07.2023 Ryukyu Ryukyu 2-1 HT 0-1 Matsumoto Yamaga Matsumoto Yamaga JAP3
24.10.2021 Matsumoto Yamaga Matsumoto Yamaga 1-2 HT 0-0 Ryukyu Ryukyu JAP2
26.06.2021 Ryukyu Ryukyu 4-0 HT 2-0 Matsumoto Yamaga Matsumoto Yamaga JAP2
09.06.2021 Matsumoto Yamaga Matsumoto Yamaga 1-0 HT 0-0 Ryukyu Ryukyu JPK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Matsumoto Yamaga
2-1
AWAY Ryukyu
34% Ball Possession 66%
13 Total Shots 7
7 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
212 Passes 485
72% Pass Accuracy 85%
9 Crosses 14
POST-MATCH Matsumoto Yamaga vs Ryukyu
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Matsumoto Yamaga squeezed past Ryukyu 2-1. Half-time: 2-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Matsumoto Yamaga as the likeliest winner at 54%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Matsumoto Yamaga had 34% of the ball to Ryukyu's 66%, shots finished 13-7.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Ryukyu led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Matsumoto Yamaga and 1.83 for Ryukyu.

What was the final score of Matsumoto Yamaga vs Ryukyu?

Matsumoto Yamaga 2-1 Ryukyu in the Japan - J3 League on 16/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Matsumoto Yamaga vs Ryukyu?

Before kick-off our model rated a Matsumoto Yamaga win the most likely single outcome at about 54%, with the full match-result split Matsumoto Yamaga 54%, draw 24%, Ryukyu 23%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Matsumoto Yamaga) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Matsumoto Yamaga) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
JAP3 More Japan - J3 League
16 Nov 2024
08:00 Kamatamare Sanuki vs Imabari Analysis →
08:00 Giravanz Kitakyushu vs Parceiro Nagano Analysis →
09:00 FC Gifu vs Omiya Ardija Analysis →