Blackpool 2-3 Nottingham Forest — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - FA Cup, 17 Jan 2024

Blackpool
2-3 HT 0-1
Nottingham Forest
📅17/01/2024 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 2-2 ✗
England - FA Cup – 2023/2024

Blackpool vs Nottingham Forest Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
3.32
Draw
23%
3.45
Away
35%
1.91
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
1.91
Over 2.5
53%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.73
No
48%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
3.4
2-3 Goals
41%
1.78
4-5 Goals
23%
3.45
6+ Goals
11%
13.25
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
5.0
1/2
8%
23.45
1/X
9%
13.45
X/1
15%
7.15
X/2
9%
4.6
X/X
10%
5.03
2/1 EV+ ✗
8%
33.5
2/2
18%
2.7
2/X
5%
13.1
Value flag · 2/1 at 33.5 — our 8% vs market 1.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
26%
+15.1pp
24%
Draw
25%
-1.8pp
35%
Away Win
48%
-13.4pp
47%
Under 2.5
48%
-1.4pp
53%
Over 2.5
52%
+1.4pp
52%
BTTS Yes
54%
-1.5pp
48%
BTTS No
46%
+1.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Blackpool v Nottingham Forest — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Blackpool EU Bookmakers 30%
Head to Head
AWAY Nottingham Forest EU Bookmakers 52%
+31% / +31% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -66% / -66%
1.33/1.92 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.11/1.08
+117% / +26% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -42% / -65%
44% Ball Possession 56%
11 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 6
212 · 62% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 349 · 73%
19.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 39.0
21.7 Crosses 20.0
1.3 Yellow Cards 2.0

Blackpool vs Nottingham Forest Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Blackpool
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Nottingham Forest
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.50
0.94 xG 1.84
45% Ball Possession 55%
12 Total Shots 17
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
242 Passes 344
69% Pass Accuracy 76%
20 Box Touches 31
20 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
07.01.2024 Nottingham Forest Nottingham Forest 2-2 HT 1-2 Blackpool Blackpool FAK
07.01.2023 Blackpool Blackpool 4-1 HT 1-0 Nottingham Forest Nottingham Forest FAK
02.04.2022 Blackpool Blackpool 1-4 HT 0-3 Nottingham Forest Nottingham Forest İNCL
16.10.2021 Nottingham Forest Nottingham Forest 2-1 HT 1-0 Blackpool Blackpool İNCL
14.02.2015 Blackpool Blackpool 4-4 HT 1-0 Nottingham Forest Nottingham Forest İNCL
09.08.2014 Nottingham Forest Nottingham Forest 2-0 HT 2-0 Blackpool Blackpool İNCL

Blackpool 2-3 Nottingham Forest — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Blackpool
2-3
AWAY Nottingham Forest
1.09 xG 2.93
38% Ball Possession 62%
14 Total Shots 27
4 Shots on Target 8
10 Corners 11
276 Passes 567
66% Pass Accuracy 82%
34 Box Touches 47
31 Crosses 32
4 Yellow Cards 6
POST-MATCH Blackpool vs Nottingham Forest
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Nottingham Forest nicked a narrow win over Blackpool 3-2 away from home. Half-time: 0-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Blackpool at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Blackpool had 38% of the ball to Nottingham Forest's 62%, shots finished 14-27, expected goals 1.09 to 2.93 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Nottingham Forest's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Nottingham Forest led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Blackpool and 2.50 for Nottingham Forest.

What was the final score of Blackpool vs Nottingham Forest?

Blackpool 2-3 Nottingham Forest in the England - FA Cup on 17/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Blackpool vs Nottingham Forest?

Before kick-off our model rated a Blackpool win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Blackpool 42%, draw 24%, Nottingham Forest 35%. The final score 2-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Blackpool) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Blackpool) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
FAK More England - FA Cup
17 Jan 2024
22:45 Everton vs Crystal Palace Analysis →
22:45 Bristol Rovers vs Norwich City Analysis →