Pineto 1-0 Ternana — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie C, 17 Jan 2025

📅17/01/2025 · 🕒22:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
31%
4.04
Draw
29%
3.28
Away
40%
1.77
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
63%
1.62
Over 2.5
37%
2.18
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
2.06
No
58%
1.68
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
35%
2.44
2-3 Goals
40%
1.72
4-5 Goals
17%
4.34
6+ Goals
8%
23.0
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.44 — our 35% vs market 33.1%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
1/2
5%
1/X
5%
X/1
9%
X/2
17%
X/X
16%
2/1
6%
2/2
18%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Away Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
31%
Home Win
21%
+9.8pp
29%
Draw
27%
+2.5pp
40%
Away Win
52%
-12.3pp
63%
Under 2.5
58%
+4.7pp
37%
Over 2.5
42%
-4.7pp
42%
BTTS Yes
44%
-2.7pp
58%
BTTS No
56%
+2.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Pineto EU Bookmakers 25%
Head to Head
AWAY Ternana EU Bookmakers 56%
+32% / +32% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +19% / +21%
0.68/0.31 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.89/0.62
-29% / +150% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +26% / +29%
43% Ball Possession 57%
11 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
240 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 369 · 81%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
4.1 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Pineto
0W-0D-1L
AWAY Ternana
0.00 Avg Goals (FT) 3.00
41% Ball Possession 59%
5 Total Shots 10
0 Shots on Target 8
2 Corners 5
3 Yellow Cards 1
15.09.2024 Ternana Ternana 3-0 HT 2-0 Pineto Pineto İTC
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Pineto
1-0
AWAY Ternana
37% Ball Possession 63%
9 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 2
4 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Pineto vs Ternana
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Pineto squeezed past Ternana 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (31% / 29% / 40%) promised a tight game; Pineto found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (63%), no to both teams scoring (58%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Pineto had 37% of the ball to Ternana's 63%, shots finished 9-10.

What was the final score of Pineto vs Ternana?

Pineto 1-0 Ternana in the Italy - Serie C on 17/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Pineto vs Ternana?

Before kick-off our model rated an Ternana win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Pineto 31%, draw 29%, Ternana 40%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Ternana) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Ternana) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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