Montpellier 2-1 Monaco — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Ligue 1, 17 Jan 2025

📅17/01/2025 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
25%
4.13
Draw
25%
3.94
Away
50%
1.62
Under/Over 2.5
Under
37%
2.43
Over Pick
63%
1.51
Both Teams to Score
Yes
57%
1.56
No
43%
2.27
Total Goals
0-1
20%
5.05
2-3
34%
1.95
4-5
29%
2.63
6+
17%
6.47
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
7.5
1/2
11%
19.35
1/X
7%
15.4
X/1
7%
10.55
X/2
11%
4.41
X/X
13%
6.5
2/1
4%
34.5
2/2
29%
1.99
2/X
5%
13.95
Value flag · 1/2 at 19.35 — our 11% vs market 2.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Over 2.5 — 63%
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
STRENGTH Over 2.5 Away Win BTTS Yes — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Selection The Market
24%
Home Win
21%
+3.6pp
25%
Draw
22%
+3.4pp
50%
Away Win
57%
-7.0pp
37%
Under 2.5
38%
-0.6pp
63%
Over 2.5
62%
+0.6pp
57%
BTTS Yes
60%
-2.6pp
43%
BTTS No
40%
+2.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Montpellier The Market 24%
Head to Head
AWAY Monaco The Market 62%
+0% / -3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +9% / +8%
1.14/1.68 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.95/1.03
-23% / -7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +8% / -9%
42% Ball Possession 58%
11 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 5
288 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 454 · 85%
17.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 28.0
17.9 Crosses 17.3
2.0 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Montpellier
2W-0D-4L
AWAY Monaco
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.21 xG 1.89
42% Ball Possession 58%
13 Total Shots 17
5 Shots on Target 7
5 Corners 5
266 Passes 421
75% Pass Accuracy 84%
20 Box Touches 34
17 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 2
28.09.2024 Monaco Monaco 2-1 HT 1-1 Montpellier Montpellier FR1
12.05.2024 Montpellier Montpellier 0-2 HT 0-0 Monaco Monaco FR1
03.12.2023 Monaco Monaco 2-0 HT 1-0 Montpellier Montpellier FR1
30.04.2023 Monaco Monaco 0-4 HT 0-1 Montpellier Montpellier FR1
09.10.2022 Montpellier Montpellier 0-2 HT 0-1 Monaco Monaco FR1
23.01.2022 Montpellier Montpellier 3-2 HT 2-1 Monaco Monaco FR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Montpellier
2-1
AWAY Monaco
2.45 xG 1.85
33% Ball Possession 67%
12 Total Shots 26
4 Shots on Target 11
4 Corners 16
155 Passes 445
60% Pass Accuracy 84%
20 Box Touches 41
15 Crosses 33
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Montpellier vs Monaco
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Montpellier squeezed past Monaco 2-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Monaco at 50%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (63%), both teams to score (57%) came in.

On the day, Montpellier had 33% of the ball to Monaco's 67%, shots finished 12-26, expected goals 2.45 to 1.85.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Monaco led the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Montpellier and 1.67 for Monaco.

What was the final score of Montpellier vs Monaco?

Montpellier 2-1 Monaco in the France - Ligue 1 on 17/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Montpellier vs Monaco?

Before kick-off our model rated an Monaco win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Montpellier 24%, draw 25%, Monaco 50%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Monaco) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Monaco) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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