Monaco 2-1 Montpellier — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Ligue 1, 28 Sep 2024

📅28/09/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-0 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
62%
1.3
Draw
21%
5.15
Away
17%
6.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
41%
2.98
Over 2.5
59%
1.36
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.61
No
50%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
7.74
2-3 Goals
37%
2.28
4-5 Goals
27%
2.41
6+ Goals
15%
4.36
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
37%
1.47
1/2
4%
34.5
1/X
5%
21.0
X/1
15%
3.78
X/2
9%
19.25
X/X
9%
9.65
2/1 EV+ ✗
10%
18.7
2/2
4%
12.55
2/X
7%
20.4
Value flag · 2/1 at 18.7 — our 10% vs market 2.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
62%
Home Win
72%
-10.0pp
21%
Draw
16%
+4.7pp
17%
Away Win
12%
+5.3pp
41%
Under 2.5
30%
+10.8pp
59%
Over 2.5
70%
-10.8pp
50%
BTTS Yes
58%
-8.0pp
50%
BTTS No
42%
+8.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Monaco EU Bookmakers 77%
Head to Head
AWAY Montpellier EU Bookmakers 15%
-4% / -20% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / -1%
1.93/1.01 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.88/2.40
+4% / -20% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +9% / -17%
57% Ball Possession 43%
17 Total Shots 9
7 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 3
444 · 84% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 317 · 78%
30.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 13.4
19.7 Crosses 14.3
1.7 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Monaco
4W-0D-2L
AWAY Montpellier
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.57 xG 1.28
58% Ball Possession 42%
16 Total Shots 14
7 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
428 Passes 273
84% Pass Accuracy 76%
30 Box Touches 20
18 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 2
12.05.2024 Montpellier Montpellier 0-2 HT 0-0 Monaco Monaco FR1
03.12.2023 Monaco Monaco 2-0 HT 1-0 Montpellier Montpellier FR1
30.04.2023 Monaco Monaco 0-4 HT 0-1 Montpellier Montpellier FR1
09.10.2022 Montpellier Montpellier 0-2 HT 0-1 Monaco Monaco FR1
23.01.2022 Montpellier Montpellier 3-2 HT 2-1 Monaco Monaco FR1
24.10.2021 Monaco Monaco 3-1 HT 2-0 Montpellier Montpellier FR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Monaco
2-1
AWAY Montpellier
3.25 xG 0.88
65% Ball Possession 35%
21 Total Shots 9
7 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 2
450 Passes 192
86% Pass Accuracy 69%
49 Box Touches 14
15 Crosses 11
4 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Monaco vs Montpellier
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Monaco squeezed past Montpellier 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Monaco as the likeliest winner at 62%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (59%) came in.

On the day, Monaco had 65% of the ball to Montpellier's 35%, shots finished 21-9, expected goals 3.25 to 0.88 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Monaco's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Monaco had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Monaco and 1.33 for Montpellier.

What was the final score of Monaco vs Montpellier?

Monaco 2-1 Montpellier in the France - Ligue 1 on 28/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Monaco vs Montpellier?

Before kick-off our model rated a Monaco win the most likely single outcome at about 62%, with the full match-result split Monaco 62%, draw 21%, Montpellier 17%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Monaco), Over 2.5 — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Monaco) ✓ Over 2.5
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