Monaco vs Montpellier Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Monaco v Montpellier — Team-Based Signals
Monaco vs Montpellier Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
2-0
HT 1-0
Montpellier
FR1
0-4
HT 0-1
Montpellier
FR1
0-2
HT 0-1
Monaco
FR1
3-2
HT 2-1
Monaco
FR1
3-1
HT 2-0
Montpellier
FR1
Monaco 2-1 Montpellier — Actual Match Statistics
Monaco squeezed past Montpellier 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.
As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Monaco as the likeliest winner at 62%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (59%) came in.
On the day, Monaco had 65% of the ball to Montpellier's 35%, shots finished 21-9, expected goals 3.25 to 0.88 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Monaco's control.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Monaco had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Monaco and 1.33 for Montpellier.
What was the final score of Monaco vs Montpellier?
Monaco 2-1 Montpellier in the France - Ligue 1 on 28/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Monaco vs Montpellier?
Before kick-off our model rated a Monaco win the most likely single outcome at about 62%, with the full match-result split Monaco 62%, draw 21%, Montpellier 17%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Monaco), Over 2.5 — a clean sweep of the main markets.