Le Havre 0-3 Lille — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Ligue 1, 28 Sep 2024

Le Havre
0-3 HT 0-2
Lille
📅28/09/2024 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
France - Ligue 1 – 2024/2025

Le Havre vs Lille Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
27%
3.5
Draw
29%
3.35
Away
44%
1.89
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.75
Over 2.5
46%
1.97
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
1.88
No
56%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
33%
2.93
2-3 Goals
37%
1.77
4-5 Goals
21%
3.98
6+ Goals
9%
18.2
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.93 — our 33% vs market 28.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
8%
6.26
1/2
7%
26.0
1/X
7%
14.9
X/1
9%
7.88
X/2
18%
4.15
X/X
15%
4.47
2/1
10%
34.5
2/2
19%
2.56
2/X
7%
14.25
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
27%
Home Win
25%
+2.4pp
29%
Draw
26%
+2.4pp
44%
Away Win
49%
-4.8pp
54%
Under 2.5
53%
+1.0pp
46%
Over 2.5
47%
-1.0pp
44%
BTTS Yes
49%
-4.6pp
56%
BTTS No
51%
+4.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Le Havre v Lille — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Le Havre EU Bookmakers 29%
Head to Head
AWAY Lille EU Bookmakers 53%
+2% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / -21%
1.51/1.30 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.22/1.20
+46% / +13% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -12% / -11%
41% Ball Possession 59%
11 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
276 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 457 · 84%
25.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 25.5
19.1 Crosses 18.1
1.8 Yellow Cards 1.9

Le Havre vs Lille Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Le Havre
0W-0D-6L
AWAY Lille
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
0.72 xG 2.51
38% Ball Possession 62%
8 Total Shots 19
2 Shots on Target 8
5 Corners 5
290 Passes 545
80% Pass Accuracy 89%
10 Box Touches 29
14 Crosses 12
3 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
17.02.2024 Lille Lille 3-0 HT 2-0 Le Havre Le Havre FR1
01.10.2023 Le Havre Le Havre 0-2 HT 0-1 Lille Lille FR1
26.07.2023 Lille Lille 3-2 HT 1-1 Le Havre Le Havre HAZ
23.05.2009 Le Havre Le Havre 0-1 HT 0-0 Lille Lille FR1
20.12.2008 Lille Lille 3-1 HT 1-0 Le Havre Le Havre FR1
20.12.2002 Lille Lille 1-0 HT 0-0 Le Havre Le Havre FR1

Le Havre 0-3 Lille — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Le Havre
0-3
AWAY Lille
0.42 xG 3.61
38% Ball Possession 62%
7 Total Shots 18
4 Shots on Target 10
1 Corners 5
313 Passes 574
82% Pass Accuracy 90%
10 Box Touches 45
11 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Le Havre vs Lille
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lille swept aside Le Havre 3-0 away from home. Half-time: 0-2.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Lille as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 3-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged no to both teams scoring (56%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Le Havre had 38% of the ball to Lille's 62%, shots finished 7-18, expected goals 0.42 to 3.61.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Lille led the recent series with 6 wins. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Le Havre and 2.17 for Lille.

What was the final score of Le Havre vs Lille?

Le Havre 0-3 Lille in the France - Ligue 1 on 28/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Le Havre vs Lille?

Before kick-off our model rated an Lille win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Le Havre 27%, draw 29%, Lille 44%. The final score 0-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Lille), BTTS No — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Lille) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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