Swansea City 1-1 Birmingham — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Championship, 17 Jan 2026

📅17/01/2026 · 🕒20:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.47
Draw
29%
3.11
Away
33%
2.62
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.71
Over 2.5
42%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.82
No
54%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
35%
2.77
2-3 Goals
38%
1.76
4-5 Goals
19%
4.06
6+ Goals
8%
19.25
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.77 — our 35% vs market 29.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
3.93
1/2
6%
32.0
1/X
7%
13.45
X/1
13%
5.64
X/2
12%
5.7
X/X
16%
4.24
2/1
9%
31.5
2/2
15%
4.0
2/X
6%
13.5
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
37%
+1.5pp
28%
Draw
29%
-0.3pp
33%
Away Win
34%
-1.2pp
58%
Under 2.5
55%
+3.3pp
42%
Over 2.5
45%
-3.3pp
46%
BTTS Yes
51%
-5.2pp
54%
BTTS No
49%
+5.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Swansea City EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Birmingham EU Bookmakers 38%
+0% / +7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -21%
1.22/1.05 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.18/1.22
-14% / +13% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -33% / -8%
53% Ball Possession 47%
12 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
349 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 325 · 78%
19.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.7
20.2 Crosses 21.4
1.6 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Swansea City
0W-4D-2L
AWAY Birmingham
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.17 xG 2.09
60% Ball Possession 40%
10 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 5
2 Corners 6
424 Passes 232
82% Pass Accuracy 74%
16 Box Touches 26
12 Crosses 21
3 Yellow Cards 4
20.09.2025 Birmingham Birmingham 1-0 HT 0-0 Swansea City Swansea City İNCL
13.01.2024 Birmingham Birmingham 2-2 HT 1-1 Swansea City Swansea City İNCL
05.08.2023 Swansea City Swansea City 1-1 HT 0-1 Birmingham Birmingham İNCL
04.02.2023 Swansea City Swansea City 3-4 HT 2-1 Birmingham Birmingham İNCL
08.11.2022 Birmingham Birmingham 2-2 HT 1-2 Swansea City Swansea City İNCL
19.03.2022 Swansea City Swansea City 0-0 HT 0-0 Birmingham Birmingham İNCL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Swansea City
1-1
AWAY Birmingham
1.63 xG 1.09
50% Ball Possession 50%
19 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 1
5 Corners 5
320 Passes 293
78% Pass Accuracy 72%
20 Box Touches 25
22 Crosses 15
POST-MATCH Swansea City vs Birmingham
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Swansea City and Birmingham shared the points in a 1-1 draw. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match split (38% / 28% / 33%) said coin-flip, and the draw proved it right. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (58%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Swansea City had 50% of the ball to Birmingham's 50%, shots finished 19-12, expected goals 1.63 to 1.09.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Birmingham led the recent series with 2 wins, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Swansea City and 1.67 for Birmingham.

What was the final score of Swansea City vs Birmingham?

Swansea City 1-1 Birmingham in the England - Championship on 17/01/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Swansea City vs Birmingham?

Before kick-off our model rated a Swansea City win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Swansea City 38%, draw 28%, Birmingham 33%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Swansea City), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Swansea City) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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