Preston North End vs Derby County Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Preston North End v Derby County — Team-Based Signals
Preston North End vs Derby County Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
1-0
HT 0-0
Preston North End
İNCL
0-0
HT 0-0
Derby County
İNCL
3-0
HT 1-0
Derby County
İNCL
Preston North End 0-1 Derby County — Actual Match Statistics
Derby County edged past Preston North End 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.
Our pre-match lean was Preston North End at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.
On the day, Preston North End had 51% of the ball to Derby County's 49%, shots finished 13-18, expected goals 0.99 to 1.76.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Preston North End and 0.67 for Derby County.
What was the final score of Preston North End vs Derby County?
Preston North End 0-1 Derby County in the England - Championship on 17/01/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Preston North End vs Derby County?
Before kick-off our model rated a Preston North End win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Preston North End 43%, draw 26%, Derby County 31%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Preston North End) went the other way.