Derby County 0-1 Preston North End — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Championship, 20 Sep 2025

Derby County
0-1 HT 0-1
Preston North End
📅20/09/2025 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-0 ✗
England - Championship – 2025/2026

Derby County vs Preston North End Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.25
Draw
29%
3.04
Away
31%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.52
Over 2.5
43%
2.38
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
2.06
No
53%
1.68
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
33%
2.18
2-3 Goals
40%
1.75
4-5 Goals
19%
5.15
6+ Goals
8%
32.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
3.41
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
6%
14.4
X/1
11%
4.7
X/2
13%
6.02
X/X
15%
3.7
2/1
7%
32.5
2/2
11%
4.95
2/X
8%
14.9
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
41%
-0.6pp
29%
Draw
30%
-0.1pp
30%
Away Win
30%
+0.7pp
57%
Under 2.5
62%
-4.5pp
43%
Over 2.5
38%
+4.5pp
47%
BTTS Yes
44%
+2.4pp
53%
BTTS No
56%
-2.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Derby County v Preston North End — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Derby County EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Preston North End EU Bookmakers 33%
-4% / -20% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +6%
1.33/0.99 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.90/1.14
-25% / +27% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -10% / +22%
50% Ball Possession 50%
11 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 4
294 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 294 · 72%
22.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.5
21.6 Crosses 15.7
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.1

Derby County vs Preston North End Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Derby County
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Preston North End
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
0.76 xG 0.61
50% Ball Possession 50%
11 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
278 Passes 279
72% Pass Accuracy 72%
18 Box Touches 16
24 Crosses 18
1 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
02.04.2025 Derby County Derby County 2-0 HT 0-0 Preston North End Preston North End İNCL
23.11.2024 Preston North End Preston North End 1-1 HT 1-1 Derby County Derby County İNCL
02.04.2022 Derby County Derby County 1-0 HT 0-0 Preston North End Preston North End İNCL
16.10.2021 Preston North End Preston North End 0-0 HT 0-0 Derby County Derby County İNCL
20.04.2021 Preston North End Preston North End 3-0 HT 1-0 Derby County Derby County İNCL
26.12.2020 Derby County Derby County 0-1 HT 0-0 Preston North End Preston North End İNCL

Derby County 0-1 Preston North End — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Derby County
0-1
AWAY Preston North End
0.33 xG 0.90
48% Ball Possession 52%
7 Total Shots 10
2 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 4
318 Passes 359
78% Pass Accuracy 78%
21 Box Touches 15
23 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Derby County vs Preston North End
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Preston North End squeezed past Derby County 1-0 away from home.

Our pre-match split (40% / 29% / 30%) promised a tight game; Preston North End found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (57%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Derby County had 48% of the ball to Preston North End's 52%, shots finished 7-10, expected goals 0.33 to 0.90.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Derby County and 0.83 for Preston North End.

What was the final score of Derby County vs Preston North End?

Derby County 0-1 Preston North End in the England - Championship on 20/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Derby County vs Preston North End?

Before kick-off our model rated a Derby County win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Derby County 40%, draw 29%, Preston North End 30%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Derby County) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Derby County) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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