Lusitano Évora 1911 1-0 Caldas — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 3rd Division, 17 Jan 2026

📅17/01/2026 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
1.92
Draw
26%
3.28
Away
29%
3.48
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.68
Over 2.5
43%
2.07
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.88
No
52%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
33%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
19%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
1/2
6%
1/X
8%
X/1
14%
X/2
7%
X/X
11%
2/1
11%
2/2
16%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
48%
-3.0pp
26%
Draw
27%
-1.1pp
29%
Away Win
25%
+4.1pp
57%
Under 2.5
56%
+1.4pp
43%
Over 2.5
44%
-1.4pp
48%
BTTS Yes
49%
-1.2pp
52%
BTTS No
51%
+1.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lusitano Évora 1911 EU Bookmakers 52%
Head to Head
AWAY Caldas EU Bookmakers 29%
+38% / +38% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +14% / +10%
1.98/0.49 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.23/1.47
+45% / +92% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +28% / -14%
57% Ball Possession 43%
13 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
337 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 256 · 72%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.0 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lusitano Évora 1911
0W-0D-1L
AWAY Caldas
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
39% Ball Possession 61%
7 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 8
0 Yellow Cards 2
26.10.2025 Caldas Caldas 2-1 HT 0-1 Lusitano Évora 1911 Lusitano Évora 1911 POR3
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lusitano Évora 1911
1-0
AWAY Caldas
56% Ball Possession 44%
11 Total Shots 4
3 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 0
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Lusitano Évora 1911 vs Caldas
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lusitano Évora 1911 edged past Caldas 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Lusitano Évora 1911 as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (57%) came in.

On the day, Lusitano Évora 1911 had 56% of the ball to Caldas's 44%, shots finished 11-4.

What was the final score of Lusitano Évora 1911 vs Caldas?

Lusitano Évora 1911 1-0 Caldas in the Portugal - 3rd Division on 17/01/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lusitano Évora 1911 vs Caldas?

Before kick-off our model rated a Lusitano Évora 1911 win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Lusitano Évora 1911 45%, draw 26%, Caldas 29%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Lusitano Évora 1911), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Lusitano Évora 1911) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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