Al Nassr 3-2 Al Shabab Riyadh — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Saudi Arabia Prosefyonel League, 17 Jan 2026

📅17/01/2026 · 🕒20:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
62%
1.43
Draw
21%
4.49
Away
17%
5.27
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
2.61
Over 2.5
54%
1.45
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.6
No
45%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
5.7
2-3 Goals
38%
2.03
4-5 Goals
27%
2.5
6+ Goals
12%
5.49
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
31%
1/2
5%
1/X
6%
X/1
16%
X/2
7%
X/X
7%
2/1
15%
2/2
5%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
62%
Home Win
65%
-2.9pp
20%
Draw
19%
+1.6pp
17%
Away Win
16%
+1.4pp
46%
Under 2.5
35%
+11.0pp
54%
Over 2.5
65%
-11.0pp
55%
BTTS Yes
58%
-3.7pp
45%
BTTS No
42%
+3.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Al Nassr EU Bookmakers 70%
Head to Head
AWAY Al Shabab Riyadh EU Bookmakers 19%
-3% / -13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +10% / +10%
2.09/1.12 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.15/2.24
+5% / -35% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +45% / +4%
58% Ball Possession 42%
15 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
437 · 85% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 281 · 79%
28.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.4
21.3 Crosses 12.4
1.8 Yellow Cards 3.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Al Nassr
4W-2D-0L
AWAY Al Shabab Riyadh
2.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
2.29 xG 1.55
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 12
7 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 7
388 Passes 336
87% Pass Accuracy 84%
15 Box Touches 19
13 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 4
07.03.2025 Al Nassr Al Nassr 2-2 HT 2-1 Al Shabab Riyadh Al Shabab Riyadh SUUD
18.10.2024 Al Shabab Riyadh Al Shabab Riyadh 1-2 HT 0-0 Al Nassr Al Nassr SUUD
25.02.2024 Al Shabab Riyadh Al Shabab Riyadh 2-3 HT 1-1 Al Nassr Al Nassr SUUD
11.12.2023 Al Shabab Riyadh Al Shabab Riyadh 2-5 HT 1-3 Al Nassr Al Nassr SAKK
29.08.2023 Al Nassr Al Nassr 4-0 HT 3-0 Al Shabab Riyadh Al Shabab Riyadh SUUD
28.07.2023 Al Nassr Al Nassr 0-0 HT 0-0 Al Shabab Riyadh Al Shabab Riyadh AŞMPL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Al Nassr
3-2
AWAY Al Shabab Riyadh
1.42 xG 0.69
60% Ball Possession 40%
14 Total Shots 7
5 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 5
408 Passes 252
89% Pass Accuracy 81%
24 Box Touches 12
15 Crosses 12
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Al Nassr vs Al Shabab Riyadh
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Al Nassr squeezed past Al Shabab Riyadh 3-2. Half-time: 2-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Al Nassr as the likeliest winner at 62%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — both teams to score (55%) came in.

On the day, Al Nassr had 60% of the ball to Al Shabab Riyadh's 40%, shots finished 14-7, expected goals 1.42 to 0.69.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Al Nassr had the better of it with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.67 goals for Al Nassr and 1.17 for Al Shabab Riyadh.

What was the final score of Al Nassr vs Al Shabab Riyadh?

Al Nassr 3-2 Al Shabab Riyadh in the Saudi Arabia Prosefyonel League on 17/01/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Al Nassr vs Al Shabab Riyadh?

Before kick-off our model rated a Al Nassr win the most likely single outcome at about 62%, with the full match-result split Al Nassr 62%, draw 20%, Al Shabab Riyadh 17%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Al Nassr), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Al Nassr) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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