Farnborough 3-2 Truro City — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Conference, 17 Feb 2024

📅17/02/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
1.92
Draw
25%
3.35
Away
30%
3.44
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.9
Over 2.5
45%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.73
No
52%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
31%
3.33
2-3 Goals
41%
1.77
4-5 Goals
20%
3.47
6+ Goals
8%
13.55
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.33 — our 31% vs market 24.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
1/2
9%
1/X
12%
X/1
15%
X/2
6%
X/X
5%
2/1
4%
2/2
15%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
48%
-3.2pp
25%
Draw
26%
-1.1pp
30%
Away Win
26%
+4.2pp
55%
Under 2.5
49%
+6.0pp
45%
Over 2.5
51%
-6.0pp
48%
BTTS Yes
54%
-5.7pp
52%
BTTS No
46%
+5.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Farnborough EU Bookmakers 52%
Head to Head
AWAY Truro City EU Bookmakers 29%
-1% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +14% / +14%
1.84/1.13 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.34/1.57
+9% / -4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +16% / -2%
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
326 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 266 · 73%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Farnborough
1W-1D-1L
AWAY Truro City
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
60% Ball Possession 40%
16 Total Shots 7
4 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 1
2 Yellow Cards 3
28.08.2023 Truro City Truro City 3-1 HT 0-0 Farnborough Farnborough İCON
11.12.2021 Truro City Truro City 2-2 HT 2-0 Farnborough Farnborough İNGNLP
02.10.2021 Farnborough Farnborough 2-0 HT 2-0 Truro City Truro City İNGNLP
POST-MATCH Farnborough vs Truro City
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Farnborough nicked a narrow win over Truro City 3-2. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we said in the preview, our model had Farnborough as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Farnborough and 1.67 for Truro City.

What was the final score of Farnborough vs Truro City?

Farnborough 3-2 Truro City in the England - Conference on 17/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Farnborough vs Truro City?

Before kick-off our model rated a Farnborough win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Farnborough 45%, draw 25%, Truro City 30%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Farnborough) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Farnborough) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
İCON More England - Conference
17 Feb 2024
16:00 Scarborough Athletic vs Scunthorpe United Analysis →
18:00 Chorley vs Southport Analysis →
18:00 Brackley Town vs Peterborough Sports Analysis →
18:00 South Shields vs Darlington 1883 Analysis →
18:00 Farsley AFC vs Chester Analysis →
18:00 Weymouth vs Worthing Analysis →