Hemel Hempstead Town 1-2 Weston-super-Mare — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Conference, 17 Feb 2024

📅17/02/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
2.57
Draw
23%
3.35
Away
41%
2.35
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.97
Over 2.5
49%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.63
No
49%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
3.65
2-3 Goals
37%
1.8
4-5 Goals
24%
3.24
6+ Goals
10%
11.45
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.65 — our 29% vs market 21.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
1/2
8%
1/X
7%
X/1
12%
X/2
20%
X/X
10%
2/1
10%
2/2
13%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
36%
Home Win
35%
+0.9pp
23%
Draw
26%
-3.5pp
41%
Away Win
39%
+2.6pp
51%
Under 2.5
47%
+3.7pp
49%
Over 2.5
53%
-3.7pp
51%
BTTS Yes
57%
-6.6pp
49%
BTTS No
43%
+6.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Hemel Hempstead Town EU Bookmakers 39%
Head to Head
AWAY Weston-super-Mare EU Bookmakers 43%
+6% / +10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +5%
1.21/1.10 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.52/1.31
-10% / +16% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +6% / -1%
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
363 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 280 · 75%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.9 Yellow Cards 3.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Hemel Hempstead Town
0W-1D-0L
AWAY Weston-super-Mare
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
3 Corners 6
28.08.2023 Weston-super-Mare Weston-super-Mare 1-1 HT 0-1 Hemel Hempstead Town Hemel Hempstead Town İCON
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Hemel Hempstead Town
1-2
AWAY Weston-super-Mare
41% Ball Possession 59%
7 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 3
5 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Hemel Hempstead Town vs Weston-super-Mare
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Weston-super-Mare nicked a narrow win over Hemel Hempstead Town 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (36% / 23% / 41%) promised a tight game; Weston-super-Mare found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Hemel Hempstead Town had 41% of the ball to Weston-super-Mare's 59%, shots finished 7-14.

What was the final score of Hemel Hempstead Town vs Weston-super-Mare?

Hemel Hempstead Town 1-2 Weston-super-Mare in the England - Conference on 17/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Hemel Hempstead Town vs Weston-super-Mare?

Before kick-off our model rated an Weston-super-Mare win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Hemel Hempstead Town 36%, draw 23%, Weston-super-Mare 41%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Weston-super-Mare), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Weston-super-Mare) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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