Merida AD 2-1 CD Castellon — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - 2nd Division B, 17 Feb 2024

📅17/02/2024 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
25%
4.48
Draw
25%
3.45
Away
50%
1.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
63%
1.62
Over 2.5
37%
2.18
Both Teams to Score
Yes
41%
2.09
No
59%
1.66
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
42%
2.55
2-3 Goals
32%
1.75
4-5 Goals
19%
4.52
6+ Goals
7%
24.15
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.55 — our 42% vs market 32.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
1/2
4%
1/X
7%
X/1
9%
X/2
11%
X/X
9%
2/1
5%
2/2
35%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
25%
Home Win
19%
+5.5pp
25%
Draw
26%
-1.2pp
50%
Away Win
55%
-4.3pp
63%
Under 2.5
58%
+5.1pp
37%
Over 2.5
42%
-5.1pp
41%
BTTS Yes
44%
-3.0pp
59%
BTTS No
56%
+3.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Merida AD EU Bookmakers 22%
Head to Head
AWAY CD Castellon EU Bookmakers 58%
-2% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -7% / -7%
0.71/1.09 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.50/0.74
-26% / +12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -12% / +6%
42% Ball Possession 58%
10 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
194 · 69% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 528 · 87%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
4.5 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Merida AD
0W-0D-1L
AWAY CD Castellon
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 5.00
35% Ball Possession 65%
7 Total Shots 20
3 Shots on Target 7
2 Corners 7
2 Yellow Cards 3
30.09.2023 CD Castellon CD Castellon 5-1 HT 3-1 Merida AD Merida AD İS3
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Merida AD
2-1
AWAY CD Castellon
38% Ball Possession 62%
14 Total Shots 3
6 Shots on Target 1
7 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Merida AD vs CD Castellon
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Merida AD edged past CD Castellon 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

Our pre-match lean was CD Castellon at 50%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (63%), no to both teams scoring (59%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Merida AD had 38% of the ball to CD Castellon's 62%, shots finished 14-3.

What was the final score of Merida AD vs CD Castellon?

Merida AD 2-1 CD Castellon in the Spain - 2nd Division B on 17/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Merida AD vs CD Castellon?

Before kick-off our model rated an CD Castellon win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Merida AD 25%, draw 25%, CD Castellon 50%. The final score 2-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (CD Castellon) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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