Hapoel Beer Sheva 1-1 Maccabi Petah Tikva — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Israel - Ligat HaAl, 17 Feb 2024

📅17/02/2024 · 🕒18:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-1 2nd Score 3-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
59%
1.49
Draw
22%
4.08
Away
19%
5.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
2.07
Over 2.5
55%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.82
No
52%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
3.9
2-3 Goals
40%
1.81
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
29%
3.1
6+ Goals
9%
10.25
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.1 — our 29% vs market 26.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
41%
1/2
5%
1/X
7%
X/1
13%
X/2
7%
X/X
11%
2/1
5%
2/2
7%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
59%
Home Win
63%
-3.4pp
22%
Draw
21%
+0.9pp
19%
Away Win
16%
+2.5pp
45%
Under 2.5
44%
+0.8pp
55%
Over 2.5
56%
-0.8pp
48%
BTTS Yes
51%
-2.5pp
52%
BTTS No
49%
+2.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Hapoel Beer Sheva EU Bookmakers 67%
Head to Head
AWAY Maccabi Petah Tikva EU Bookmakers 20%
-1% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +4%
1.96/0.93 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.91/1.61
+36% / +20% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +16% / +1%
54% Ball Possession 46%
15 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
410 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 295 · 75%
31.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.5
19.0 Crosses 16.5
2.6 Yellow Cards 3.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Hapoel Beer Sheva
1W-0D-0L
AWAY Maccabi Petah Tikva
4.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.74 xG 0.99
54% Ball Possession 46%
21 Total Shots 6
10 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 2
271 Passes 225
75% Pass Accuracy 68%
33 Box Touches 13
25 Crosses 6
1 Yellow Cards 3
16.12.2023 Maccabi Petah Tikva Maccabi Petah Tikva 1-4 HT 1-0 Hapoel Beer Sheva Hapoel Beer Sheva İSR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Hapoel Beer Sheva
1-1
AWAY Maccabi Petah Tikva
1.64 xG 1.52
55% Ball Possession 45%
18 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 7
10 Corners 6
294 Passes 224
77% Pass Accuracy 69%
33 Box Touches 24
30 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Hapoel Beer Sheva vs Maccabi Petah Tikva
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Hapoel Beer Sheva and Maccabi Petah Tikva shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-0.

This one beat our numbers. Hapoel Beer Sheva carried 59% before kick-off and it didn't land — a reminder that even strong leads lose regularly. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Hapoel Beer Sheva had 55% of the ball to Maccabi Petah Tikva's 45%, shots finished 18-16, expected goals 1.64 to 1.52.

What was the final score of Hapoel Beer Sheva vs Maccabi Petah Tikva?

Hapoel Beer Sheva 1-1 Maccabi Petah Tikva in the Israel - Ligat HaAl on 17/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Hapoel Beer Sheva vs Maccabi Petah Tikva?

Before kick-off our model rated a Hapoel Beer Sheva win the most likely single outcome at about 59%, with the full match-result split Hapoel Beer Sheva 59%, draw 22%, Maccabi Petah Tikva 19%. The final score 1-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Hapoel Beer Sheva) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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