Hapoel Jerusalem 1-1 Ashdod — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Israel - Ligat HaAl, 17 Feb 2024

📅17/02/2024 · 🕒19:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.05
Draw
29%
3.11
Away
29%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.6
Over 2.5
42%
2.21
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.96
No
52%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
30%
2.47
2-3 Goals
41%
1.75
4-5 Goals
23%
4.68
6+ Goals
6%
26.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
1/2
4%
1/X
7%
X/1
7%
X/2
11%
X/X
13%
2/1
7%
2/2
14%
2/X
10%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
45%
-3.1pp
30%
Draw
29%
+0.9pp
29%
Away Win
26%
+2.2pp
58%
Under 2.5
59%
-0.6pp
42%
Over 2.5
41%
+0.6pp
48%
BTTS Yes
47%
+1.1pp
52%
BTTS No
53%
-1.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Hapoel Jerusalem EU Bookmakers 49%
Head to Head
AWAY Ashdod EU Bookmakers 30%
+16% / +16% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -13% / -13%
0.93/0.95 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.33/1.51
+3% / +130% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -54% / -8%
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
353 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 284 · 74%
21.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.9
19.0 Crosses 14.5
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Hapoel Jerusalem
1W-0D-1L
AWAY Ashdod
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.68 xG 1.68
56% Ball Possession 44%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
394 Passes 258
86% Pass Accuracy 79%
21 Box Touches 20
25 Crosses 11
1 Yellow Cards 1
16.12.2023 Ashdod Ashdod 2-0 HT 0-0 Hapoel Jerusalem Hapoel Jerusalem İSR
05.08.2023 Hapoel Jerusalem Hapoel Jerusalem 2-0 HT 1-0 Ashdod Ashdod İSRTK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Hapoel Jerusalem
1-1
AWAY Ashdod
0.60 xG 0.86
66% Ball Possession 34%
11 Total Shots 5
4 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 2
414 Passes 183
86% Pass Accuracy 72%
19 Box Touches 8
22 Crosses 5
2 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Hapoel Jerusalem vs Ashdod
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Hapoel Jerusalem and Ashdod couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Hapoel Jerusalem at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (58%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Hapoel Jerusalem had 66% of the ball to Ashdod's 34%, shots finished 11-5, expected goals 0.60 to 0.86.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Hapoel Jerusalem and 1.00 for Ashdod.

What was the final score of Hapoel Jerusalem vs Ashdod?

Hapoel Jerusalem 1-1 Ashdod in the Israel - Ligat HaAl on 17/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Hapoel Jerusalem vs Ashdod?

Before kick-off our model rated a Hapoel Jerusalem win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Hapoel Jerusalem 42%, draw 30%, Ashdod 29%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Hapoel Jerusalem), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Hapoel Jerusalem) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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