Caersws 1-2 Porthmadog — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Wales - FAW Championship, 17 Feb 2024

📅17/02/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
57%
1.9
Draw
19%
3.8
Away
24%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
28%
2.74
Over 2.5
72%
1.41
Both Teams to Score
Yes
67%
1.39
No
33%
2.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
16%
2-3 Goals
29%
4-5 Goals
36%
6+ Goals
19%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
1/2
3%
1/X
3%
X/1
21%
X/2
6%
X/X
8%
2/1
10%
2/2
14%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
57%
Home Win
48%
+9.1pp
19%
Draw
23%
-3.9pp
24%
Away Win
29%
-5.2pp
28%
Under 2.5
33%
-4.4pp
72%
Over 2.5
67%
+4.4pp
67%
BTTS Yes
68%
-0.9pp
33%
BTTS No
32%
+0.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Caersws EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Porthmadog EU Bookmakers 32%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -9% / -9%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
/ Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -1% / -16%
52% Ball Possession 48%
15 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 6
331 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 354 · 82%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards 1.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Caersws
0W-2D-0L
AWAY Porthmadog
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
18.11.2023 Caersws Caersws 1-1 Porthmadog Porthmadog GALFAW
18.11.2023 Porthmadog Porthmadog 1-1 HT 1-1 Caersws Caersws GALFAW
POST-MATCH Caersws vs Porthmadog
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Porthmadog squeezed past Caersws 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Caersws at 57% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (72%), both teams to score (67%) came in.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, honours were even at 0 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Caersws and 1.00 for Porthmadog.

What was the final score of Caersws vs Porthmadog?

Caersws 1-2 Porthmadog in the Wales - FAW Championship on 17/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Caersws vs Porthmadog?

Before kick-off our model rated a Caersws win the most likely single outcome at about 57%, with the full match-result split Caersws 57%, draw 19%, Porthmadog 24%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Caersws) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Caersws) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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