Santa Lucia 1-0 Naxxar Lions — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Malta - Premier League, 17 Feb 2024

📅17/02/2024 · 🕒18:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
32%
2.46
Draw
28%
3.18
Away
40%
2.62
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.62
Over 2.5
44%
2.18
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.9
No
52%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
31%
2-3 Goals
41%
4-5 Goals
20%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
10%
1/2
6%
1/X
9%
X/1
15%
X/2
7%
X/X
12%
2/1
7%
2/2
27%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
32%
Home Win
37%
-5.1pp
28%
Draw
28%
-0.6pp
40%
Away Win
35%
+5.6pp
56%
Under 2.5
58%
-2.1pp
44%
Over 2.5
42%
+2.1pp
48%
BTTS Yes
49%
-1.0pp
52%
BTTS No
51%
+1.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Santa Lucia EU Bookmakers 41%
Head to Head
AWAY Naxxar Lions EU Bookmakers 38%
-10% / -10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -4%
0.34/0.83 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.00/1.00
-67% / +62% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -27% / -12%
53% Ball Possession 47%
10 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
302 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 276 · 74%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
3.1 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Santa Lucia
0W-0D-1L
AWAY Naxxar Lions
0.00 Avg Goals (FT) 4.00
49% Ball Possession 51%
5 Total Shots 11
0 Shots on Target 6
9 Corners 5
4 Yellow Cards 1
01.10.2023 Naxxar Lions Naxxar Lions 4-0 HT 1-0 Santa Lucia Santa Lucia MLTP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Santa Lucia
1-0
AWAY Naxxar Lions
45% Ball Possession 55%
5 Total Shots 5
4 Shots on Target 1
5 Corners 3
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Santa Lucia vs Naxxar Lions
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Santa Lucia edged past Naxxar Lions 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (32% / 28% / 40%) promised a tight game; Santa Lucia found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (56%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Santa Lucia had 45% of the ball to Naxxar Lions's 55%, shots finished 5-5.

What was the final score of Santa Lucia vs Naxxar Lions?

Santa Lucia 1-0 Naxxar Lions in the Malta - Premier League on 17/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Santa Lucia vs Naxxar Lions?

Before kick-off our model rated an Naxxar Lions win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Santa Lucia 32%, draw 28%, Naxxar Lions 40%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Naxxar Lions) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Naxxar Lions) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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